Braves Report

Arguably the most unusual and intriguing player on Atlanta’s roster is Matt Diaz, who has been a hitting machine for Atlanta despite a lack of tools and hype. I’ve always heard that to know where you’re going, you’ve got to know where you’ve been, so this comprehensive look at Diaz’ career will hopefully shed some light on the most overlooked player in the National League and provide some insight as to what to expect from Diaz in the future.

Amateur Career: In his first year on Florida State’s campus, Matt Diaz made an immediate impact. In 1998, Diaz was named NCAA Freshman of the Year and was a 3^rd Team All-American, batting .390/.440/.714 with 22 HR in only 269 AB, helping FSU reach the College World Series. As a sophomore, the offensive assault continued to the pace of .379/.440/.688 with 21 HR, and Diaz led FSU to Omaha yet again, this time all the way to the championship game. Diaz was named to College World Series’ All Tournament Team, on top of his 1^st Team All-America regular season selection.

Diaz was drafted by Tampa Bay in the 17^th round of the 1999 draft, which, given his college stardom, seems pretty low. However, as a sophomore, he had some leverage and wasn’t considered really toolsy. Matt Diaz, of course, is one of those players the old scouts utterly despise – he doesn’t have a baseball body, and his swing is unorthodox and not ideal (according to scouts). He signed with the Devil Rays and immediately began his pro career.

1999 – A- Hudson Valley Renegades – .245/.284/.351 with 15 2B & 1 HR in 54 games.
2000 – A+ St. Petersburg Devil Rays – .270/.305/.385 with 21 2B & 6 HR in 106 games.

Most college players start out at low A ball, and this is where Diaz began his career. His naysayers probably tossed told-you-so’s around without caution that summer. Still, while it’s ok to get excited over solid performance in a player’s first year, it’s also not really necessary to worry over a poor performance. Diaz’ performance really wasn’t that bad, considering Dutchess Stadium (The Dutch) is one of the minors’ most unforgiving hitting environments. Also, it’s not unusual for pitchers to dominate lower levels, so Diaz’ line, while not exactly stellar, was enough to earn him a promotion in the offseason.
Diaz played his first full season in A+ ball in the final season of minor league baseball at Al Lang Field in St. Pete. Thanks to Clay Davenport, I found the park factor for St. Petersburg in 2000, which was .983. All this means is that for every run scored in a neutral atmosphere, .983 runs were scored at St. Petersburg. Al Lang Field always favored pitchers, so Diaz was dealing with yet another tough hitting environment. At this point in his career, he still wasn’t seen as much of a prospect by his team, but he at least hit well enough to keep the team interested in his development.

2001 – A+ Bakersfield Blaze – .328/.370/.510 with 40 2B & 17 HR in 131 games.

Diaz’ big breakout season was indeed impressive, however it must be pointed out that Diaz was 23 years old, which is a bit old for the level. All things considered, it was his second year in high A ball, so excitement over that impressive line had to be tempered a bit. However, there was also reason for real optimism. Bakersfield’s home park has favored pitchers considerably over the years; now that line of .328/.370/.510 looks even better. Clearly, it was a successful but unrevealing season for Diaz not only with the bat, but in the field – while he certainly impressed with 17 outfield assists, his 10 errors were disappointing. The jump to AA is considered the key minor league jump, so much of Diaz’ future remained, at this point, a mystery.

2002 – AA Orlando Rays – .274/.337/.408 with 28 2B & 10 HR in 122 games.

Diaz didn’t exactly excel in his first upper minors stop, but the 24 year old also didn’t disappoint. Orlando is a pretty neutral park, so his numbers weren’t too high or low. Surprisingly, and seemingly out of nowhere, Diaz stole 31 bases, 12 more than his entire career total to date. A pretty solid debut for AA, I think.

2003 – AA Orlando Rays – .383/.444/.542 with 21 2B & 5 HR in 60 games
- AAA Durham Bulls – .328/.382/.518 with 18 2B & 8 HR in 67 games

Holy smokes. While I was already surprised to see Diaz wasn’t promoted to AAA after his fairly solid 2002 season, Diaz clearly showed the organization that he was too dominant for AA. Remember that Orlando played pretty neutrally, so this isn’t like hitting .383 in Denver; for a frame of reference, it’s like doing it in Atlanta. He continued to shine in AAA, and although his slugging percentage dropped (because the BA dropped and for no other reason), he actually improved his power output in Durham. Granted, it’s hard not to improve your power in Durham, which favors hitters, but it was nice to see Diaz take advantage. A phenomenal year from a continuously doubted prospect, all in all.

2004 – AAA Durham Bulls – .332/.377/.571 with 47 2B, 5 3B, and 21 HR in 134 games

This is why Tampa Bay remained in the AL East cellar for so long. In 2004, a year after Diaz had scorched the two highest minor league levels, Diaz returned to AAA while Jose Cruz and Robert Fick dominated RF/DH and wasted at-bats on an everyday basis. Fick batted .201/.273/.327 for the major league club and wound up with the lion’s share of plate appearances at DH. Say what? Meanwhile Diaz took full advantage of Durham’s friendly confines, putting up yet another season of strong numbers, and earning his 3^rd Minor League All-Star appearance in a 4 year span. Yes, he was a bit old for his competition, but just because Diaz bloomed late, does it negate the fact that he did actually bloom? Partially, yes. Completely? Not at all.

2005 – AAA Omaha Royals – .371/.408/.649 with 22 2B & 14 HR in 65 games

Tampa Bay figured the only way they could top the previous year’s fiasco of favoring Rob Fick was by cutting Diaz altogether. Presumably out of options, Matt Diaz wasn’t good enough to make a roster that went 65-97, and a team that started Damon Hollins in CF for most of the season and gave considerable 3B playing time to Alex Gonzalez. I know what you’re thinking – “Oh, the bad Alex Gonzalez?” Nope, the terrible Alex Gonzalez, as in the Alex Gonzalez who still thanks God every night for Steve Bartman taking attention away from his complete and utter terrible-ness that so terribly ruined the Cubs’ 2003 playoff hopes. Yeah, that’s the one. Almost ironically, Diaz was picked up by baseball’s other black-eye organization, Kansas City. He was sent for his third season of AAA seasoning because, I kid you not, Kansas City thought it’d be fun to turn Diaz into a catcher. Also, there apparently just wasn’t room for him on the major league roster, a roster so finely constructed the Royals lost 106 games. After all, could we honestly expect Matt Diaz to unseat the mighty Terrence Long, who batted .279/.321/.378 as KC’s primary LF? Clearly not. The scary thing is that Omaha is a pretty solid pitcher’s park, and Diaz posted a 4-digit OPS. He did get 89 mostly meaningless at-bats with the big league club, during which he outhit the legendary Terrence Long to the tune of .281/.323/.404, but the Royals remained inexplicably unimpressed.

2006 – Atlanta Braves – .327/.364/.475 with 15 2B & 7 HR in 297 AB

How many times did we see John Schuerholz do this? He found a guy that some of the worst teams in baseball were unwilling to play and gave him a shot. Diaz answered, and even if he was mostly utilized against lefties, he still performed like a star. Kansas City gave him up for minor leaguer Ricardo Rodriguez, who predictably hasn’t amounted to much. 28 is better than never, and after a much too long minor league career, Diaz had finally established himself as a legitimate major league roster spot-holder, even if some still doubted his ability to keep the lightning in the bottle.

2007 – Atlanta Braves – .338/.368/.497 with 21 2B & 12 HR in 358 AB

Diaz shedded the “Vs. Lefties Only” label, excelling against every type of pitcher he faced in ’07, even if Bobby Cox didn’t take full notice. It’s likely he’ll always have managers thinking he needs to platoon, mainly because of his batting stance, which does seem like it would have a hole against righties. No matter how things look, Diaz produces at all times. Another phenomenal year from the hitter no doubt shocked the Royals and Devil Rays organizations.
I’ve spent a lot of words praising Diaz, but let’s be brutally honest. His value as a hitter is mostly tied into his batting average, and anyone who has studied BA will tell you that it is a fickle statistic, rewarding one year and ruthless the next. He’s an unusual player in that he has a below average contact rate (roughly 76% to the league’s 80%) and a really high batting average. Also, he strikes out a good bit (there’s that contact rate again) but doesn’t hit many home runs. These are no doubt some of the flaws that prolonged his minor league career. However, they’re perceived flaws, and if one can get around them, they can be rendered meaningless. That, apparently, is what Diaz has done. After all, he hasn’t just hit for high average at the major league level; he’s done it at nearly every level of the minor leagues as well as college. In order to achieve this, Diaz relies heavily on having a high batting average on balls put into play (BA which doesn’t count HR or K’s), and while the league’s average is around .290 or so, Diaz has posted .373 and .385 in that statistic the past two seasons. He maintains that high BA on balls in play by being able to hit all pitches and thanks to his unorthodox swing which produces a high amount of line drives.

Diaz doesn’t seem to struggle with any specific pitches. He can hit pretty much anything you throw him, especially change-ups. He batted .485 on change-ups, and if pitchers continue to throw it to him in 2008, they’re fools. If anything, throw him the slider, but even then, he batted .269, so it’s no sure out. Put simply, Diaz can hit anything, especially fastball-changeup combinations.

I think Diaz’ success boils down to a swing that will never produce many home runs, but will always produce enough line drives to make him a dangerous singles and doubles hitter. Yes, he should hit between 8 and 15 home runs in most seasons, but his value really lies in his ability to not simply put the ball in play, but put the ball into play in a way that is favorable to the team. That comes from all those line drives. Because of that, but also considering that Diaz will be facing a few more pitchers in 2008, I expect him to put together a season in the vicinity of .315/.360/.500.

Defensively, he’s rarely given the credit he deserves. According to John Dewan’s plus/minus system, which is based on video footage of every ball put into play in every single game and comparing the players based on that video, Diaz ranked 5^th among all left fielders last year in defensive excellence. That’s impressive, and while many concentrate on his mediocre speed, he more than makes up for it by taking the correct routes and positioning himself correctly.

Matt Diaz should continue to be a valuable major league role player and a viable full-time starter. I think he’ll continue to post a batting average near or above .300 year after year as long as that line drive rate stays in the 20% range. Ironically, the player he reminds me of the most is the very manager who wouldn’t give him the spot he deserved back in 2004 – Lou Piniella, a career .291 hitter without a lot of power but enough production to always force his way into the lineup, and that seems to be the way to best describe Matt Diaz. He’ll never be the best player on the team, but he’s precisely the type of player you just can’t keep out of the lineup.