Braves Report

In the 1990’s, Atlanta fans were like children in affluent families. If we saw something we liked, we got it with no questions asked. Be it free-agent acquisitions like Greg Maddux and Andres Galarraga or extended stays from current stars like Tom Glavine and Chipper Jones, Atlanta basically got what it wanted. Here we are in 2008, half a decade into an era of fiscal limitations in Atlanta, and every fan looks at every possible acquisition with the same question: Can we afford him? To understand the future possibilities, all we can do is look at the money and the future of the budget, thanks to the help of the wonderful Cot’s Baseball Contracts website.

2008: The ’08 salary rundown is as follows for projected starters and any other significant earners:

C – Brian McCann - $800,000
1B – Mark Teixeira - $12,500,000
2B – Kelly Johnson – near-minimum
3B – Chipper Jones - $11,000,000
SS – Yunel Escobar – near-minimum
LF – Matt Diaz - $1,225,000
CF – Mark Kotsay – < $3,000,000
RF – Jeff Francoeur – roughly $450,000

BN – Omar Infante - $1,400,000

SP1 – John Smoltz - $14,000,000
SP2 – Tim Hudson - $13,000,000
SP3 – Tom Glavine - $8,000,000
SP4 – Mike Hampton - $15,000,000
SP5 – Chuck James – near-minimum

CP – Rafael Soriano - $2,400,000
RP – Mike Gonzalez - $2,362,500
RP – Will Ohman - $1,600,000
RP – Tyler Yates - $800,000

That gives us a total of roughtly $88.7 million that is being devoted to current arbitration eligible players and the three other key starters earning the minimum. There are a few more things to take into account, though. First, Atlanta is paying Detroit a portion of Edgar Renteria’s salary. Second, there are a negligible amount of other players who will find their way onto the roster this year, driving up the overall payroll at times. Third, Atlanta has been putting money into an account for years to help lessen the blow of the final years of the Mike Hampton contract, so it’s likely that gave Atlanta as much as $7,000,000 of relief this year. All in all, I think this all balances out and we can set our team budget at roughly $88 million for non-minimum earners. This is important for giving us a context with which to view the future payroll. There’s always the chance Liberty Media could cut or expand, but that’s fairly unpredictable, so there’s no point in trying to account for that. With all this in mind, here are the changes for 2009 and beyond.

2009: Mike Hampton’s $15,000,000 comes off the books, along with Mark Teixeira’s $12,500,000 and Tom Glavine’s $8,000,000. Those three alone represent $35,500,000 of 2008 salary that won’t be around for 2009. Add in the expiring deals and near free agency of Mark Kotsay and Will Ohman, and there’s another $4,600,000, bringing the total to roughly $40,000,000. Of course, before we can start looking at free agent possibilities, we have to make sure we cover the future costs of other players. If John Smoltz pitches 200 innings this year, his 2009 option vests for $12,000,000, which actually adds $2 million to the “free money” total and brings it to $42,000,000. Chipper Jones’ vesting option will most likely kick in, and while the specifics are undisclosed, he will not be receiving any more money and might actually save us another $3 million, though that’s unlikely. Rafael Soriano gets a $3.7 million raise, so that brings our free money total down to $38,300,000. Mike Gonzalez will be in his final year of arbitration, and he should see a raise of about $1,500,000 or so, bringing us down to $36,800,000. Omar Infante enters his final year of arbitration and will probably get a half million raise, which knocks us down to $36,300,000. Matt Diaz started arbitration early this year under baseball’s Super Two rule and will probably receive a nice pay raise if his ’08 season is like his previous years. I think $4,000,000 is reasonable, which is a $2,775,000 raise. That brings us down to $33,525,000. Brian McCann gets a $300,000 raise, so that brings us down to $33,225,000. Tyler Yates will get a small raise in arbitration if he’s still here, so let’s just knock that down to $33,000,000. Next, there’s the issue of players like Jeff Francoeur, Chuck James, and Kelly Johnson entering arbitration next offseason. Initially, it won’t be a major problem. First years of arbitration usually don’t yield much salary, but 2^nd and 3^rd years often do. If we estimate James at $1,000,000, Johnson at $2,500,000, and Francoeur at $3,500,000, that brings us back to about $26,000,000 in free usable free agent money.

Why does everyone care? Almost universally among Braves fans, all money worries are focused around re-signing Mark Teixeira, and we can see that with $26,000,000 to spend, Atlanta can definitely re-sign him. However, there will be up to two rotation spots, a bullpen spot, and the CF spot to fill as well as 1B. Atlanta will probably hand CF to Jordan Schafer and turn over the bullpen spot(s) to more cost-effective players. Jair Jurrjens seems like a future fit for the rotation, but after that, will Atlanta be able to trust another young player with the job? If the team makes a play for Teixeira, it seems as if they will most likely have to invest in stop-gap pitching solutions or let young pitchers step up. It’s a big risk to take, especially in the final few years of Smoltz & Chipper this team will be afforded. But what choice does Atlanta really have other than going hard after Teixeira? Let Tyler Flowers take over? Sure, but where will you spend the money instead? C.C. Sabathia? Ben Sheets? Jon Garland? These are all fine pitchers, but they’re also all likely to demand a hefty long-term deal. You know the deal. It’s the same one Atlanta’s trying to get out of with Mike Hampton. It’s smarter to spend on something reliable, and Mark Teixeira’s production will be pretty reliable over time.

Beyond 2009, there is little money owed to Atlanta veterans. John Smoltz has a club option for 2010 if his ’09 option vests. Tim Hudson & the Braves have a mutual option. Brian McCann is the only player guaranteed money in 2010. This means Atlanta should have a full youth movement in place by ’10, maybe one or two veterans still around but mostly low-cost arbitration years contracts to build the team around. At this point, I think the team will have become something we wouldn’t have recognized 15 years ago: a team that utilizes but does not rely on free agent talent, instead stocking the bulk of the team with simultaneously homegrown low-cost players.

2008 should be exciting for Braves fans, but so should the coming years. As you can see, there are many changes on the way, and no one really knows what to expect. While it’s a safe bet to think McCann, Johnson, and Francoeur (and to a lesser degree, Yunel Escobar) will be in the starting lineup in 2 years, there’s no one else that is a great bet to remain a fixture. Uncertainty is exciting, and the payroll situation, beginning with Mark Teixeira this fall, is as big a factor in the uncertainty as anything else. When you start thinking about possible moves Frank Wren could make, just remember to follow the money, because that salary budget is the context within which all Atlanta’s personnel decisions are made.