Braves Report

Seems like a fitting title for this time of year. I hope everyone’s bracket is doing better than mine. Luckily, this means I can go back to concentrating on baseball and the Braves. As Spring Training comes to a close in a week, the Braves have some tough decisions to make surrounding the supporting roles. I’ll take a look at each of them and give you my perspective. Things can change in a week (ie. injury, bad slump, etc.), but things are becoming clearer.

Backup Catcher

This is a fan favorite right now because it involves a fan favorite from earlier this decade. Javy Lopez came to camp in great shape, having worked on his defense, and looking to find his spark offensively. He was the favorite also due to his veteran experience. However, things haven’t gone according to plan for Lopez so far. He’s hit only .200 (remember, his main weapon should be his offense) with a .300 OBP, but fortunately for him, 3 out of his five hits have been for extra bases (1 DB, 2 HR). However, his defense has been terrible (1 error, 0/6 in catching base stealers). Brayan Peña hasn’t been too much better offensively with a .316 BA but a .300 OBP (for those of you at home, this isn’t good to have OBP < BA), and he has no extra-base hits. On the other hand, his defense has been superb (0 errors, 3/3 in catching base stealers), and defense seems to be what Cox is looking for. The dark horse for the job may be Clint Sammons, whose calling card is his defense, but his defense hasn’t been particularly good (1 PB, 0/2 in catching base stealers). On offense, he may be doing better than the others with a .286 BA, a .333 OBP, and 2 doubles. Less mentioned is Corky Miller. He’s played the second-most out of this group (behind Javy), and he’s performed okay. He’s hit .200 with a .186 OBP (and a HR!), and on defense he’s thrown out his only base stealer. In the end, this may come down to options. Lopez hasn’t had it, and he may never regain enough to play anywhere (my guess: he’ll retire later this month or early April). Clint Sammons still has options, so the Braves won’t lose anything by sending him back down. This comes down to Peña and Miller with Peña (out of options) seeming the more likely choice. The Braves want to keep him, and he won’t get much in a trade. Miller has passed his prime although he played fairly well last season, and with only a minor league contract, he’s expendable.

My pick: Brayan Peña

Backup First Baseman

Humor me on this. I realize Scott Thorman is the likely choice here. However, rumors have floated around about Wes Helms being on the market as the Phillies look for a reliever, and other rumors have floated around about Thorman leaving. Last season, Helms hit .246 with 5 HR and 19 DB in 280 AB, and Thorman hit .216 with 11 HR and 18 DB. With their defense being comparable, Thorman wins because his 6 extra HR beat out Helms’ better average. However, let’s look at this differently. Helms would come to us rather cheaply (maybe even without one of the four relievers without options). Then, we trade Thorman who would bring us back more than we would lose for Helms. Now, we have Helms who would be a backup third baseman as well as first baseman and give us similar stats. Obviously, this would then leave us without an heir-apparent to Teixeira unless you believe Tyler Flowers will be ready for next season (he did impress everyone, and a good year could get him a promotion come September). Maybe in a combined Thorman and out-of-options reliever trade, we could net a AAA first baseman from someone else who might be able to help. In the end, Thorman will probably stay because I doubt the Braves will take the risk, but it’s an interesting situation. Just a warning, Thorman isn’t having a good spring. Another warning, Joe Borchard is having a good spring and has played first (although terribly), so he could push Thorman out and play first in a pinch. He’s a switch-hitter with some pop, but he seems more appropriate in the outfielders section (read below).

My pick: Scott Thorman

Backup Infielder

Martin Prado or Brent Lillibridge. That’s a difficult question. These two have the most AB’s of any Brave, so Cox is definitely waiting for someone to win the job. When looking at the stats, it’s not even close. Prado is hitting .327 with a .383 OBP in 55 AB to Lillibridge’s .238 and .360 in 42 AB, and Prado has 7 DB to Lillibridge’s 3 DB and 1 TR. Also, Prado has struck out 3 times with 5 walks, while Lillibridge has 12 K with 4 BB, and reports have stated that Lillibridge has had problems with sliders (which caused the 12 K). On defense, Prado has 0 errors in 69 chances with Lillibridge having 2 errors in 52 chances. Also note that Lillibridge is a much better shortstop, and Prado has only 4 games over there to Lillibridge’s 13. However, Prado doesn’t seem to be a butcher there and can play there until Infante is ready if needed. I like Lillibridge, but his spring may be his undoing if he doesn’t pick it up in the next week. I’ll I’ve heard about is his speed, but he has 0 SB as well.

My pick: Martin Prado with Lillibridge there until Infante is ready

Backup Outfielder

Brandon Jones seemed like a lock for this spot at the beginning, but his poor start (.211 BA and 9 K) have probably put him back in Richmond. Joe Borchard also put his name back on the map with a torrid start and still holds a respectable .303 BA, 7 DB, and 11 RBI, but he has struck out 10 times. Yet, he’s probably bound for Richmond unless the Braves decide to keep five outfielders (this means Lillibridge’s chances to start out in Atlanta are shot if this happens) with Borchard able to play first in a pinch, but his inability to play center may make him expendable. The two main candidates seem to be Josh Anderson and Gregor Blanco. Earlier, I would have dismissed Blanco because Cox has never seemed to like him, but his start and new attitude have changed things. Blanco sports a .360 BA with a .540 OBP (8 BB and 1 K) and 2 SB versus Anderson’s .308 BA, .357 OBP (3 BB, 3 K), and 3 SB. Anderson has also made an error with Blanco spotless. His BB/K rate definitely beats out Anderson’s and shows that he may be more consistent (dark horse leadoff man?), but his similar ability to play the outfield and steal bases may leave Anderson in Richmond as Anderson loses his primary assets. Watch this closely in this last week.

My pick: Gregor Blanco

Fifth Starter

Well, Jair Jurrjens seemed to have this sewn up until he imploded versus the Tigers, but it was his former team and it is the Tigers’ lineup. His 6 BB to 5 K also troubles me, but 4 of those walks came in the outing against the Tigers. We’ll have to see how he rebounds because Chuckie has come back. He made a start earlier and another one Tuesday throwing four innings, and he’ll make another soon. Therefore, with another start or two, James could feasibly get enough endurance to get through 5 innings by the end of Spring Training and start the season with the Braves. If Jurrjens rallies back in his next start or two, the job should be his as there will be no reason to rush James, but if he falters and James impresses, Jurrjens will go to Richmond. Also note that Cox likes experience, and James has more of that.

My pick: Jair Jurrjens

Last 3 Spots in the Bullpen

Okay, just hold on because this might get messy, so I’ll just list the stats instead of putting them inside undecipherable text.

Buddy Carlyle 6.55 ERA, 11 IP, 8 ER, 0 BB, 11 K (4 HR!)

Jeff Bennett 3.86 ERA, 7 IP, 3 ER, 4 BB, 0 K (!)

Blaine Boyer 2.70 ERA, 10 IP, 3 ER, 2 BB, 9 K

Chris Resop 2.00 ERA, 9 IP, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

Royce Ring 3.38 ERA, 8 IP, 3 ER, 7 BB (!), 6 K

Tyler Yates 12.00 ERA, 6 IP, 8 ER, 9 BB (!), 4 K

Carlyle and Bennett are vying for what could be the long-relief spot in the bullpen, but neither has been extremely impressive and can be sent down. Carlyle’s BB/K rate is phenomenal, but his 4 HR allowed are not. Bennett’s ERA is better, but for a power guy, he should have more strikeouts. He had the flu, and it still may be affecting him. Out of the two, I’d pick Bennett because I think the K’s will come around, but I have a different solution. Boyer, Resop, and Ring seem to have the best stats among the last four, and I think they could start out the season with Boyer being the long-reliever (why not, he was a starter at the end of last season; he should have the stamina), Resop being a middle reliever (his control seems to be under control- sorry, bad pun), and Ring could be the left-handed specialist (hopefully his control improves) with his side-arm delivery which frees up Ohman to pitch to other lefties or pitch an entire inning. I’m not in love with Yates because he finished last season poorly (you can say he was overworked, but how is 66 IP overworked?) and his Spring makes me nervous, but it’s his control that gets me. Nine walks already! Whatever happened in the second-half last season seems to still be on his mind. If that’s the case, he may be the one traded. For some reason, Cox still loves Yates, but some more bad outings will change his mind. You can use the fact that they gave Yates arbitration to give evidence that he’ll win a spot, but he’s not making much and there was no reason not to.

My pick: Blaine Boyer, Chris Resop, and Royce Ring