Braves Report

As the season nears, the NL East is shaping up to be one the best races in baseball with a three-team bottleneck between the Braves, Phillies, and Mets. Early prognosticators picked the Phillies to repeat their performance from last year, but after the Johan Santana trade, everyone has seemingly switched to back the Mets. However, lost in all this are the Braves, which may not be a bad thing. Staying under the radar may help the Braves sneak into the playoffs much like Phillies last year after their horrid start.

Offensively, the Braves look loaded. Yunel Escobar may not repeat his .326 BA / .385 OBP, but he shouldn’t drop off too much as reports indicate he looks good and has actually gained some muscle which may help his power numbers. Remember, he hit 25 doubles in 94 games (which is around 43 for a season if my math is correct). Also battling for the leadoff spot is Kelly Johnson. He may improve his .276 / .375 numbers as he will not be spending so much time working on extra fielding, keeping him fresher for the end of the season. Honestly, he may be the better choice for leadoff as he has a better track record of getting on base (Bobby loves match-ups so look for Escobar to leadoff vs. LH and Johnson vs. RH).

Next up is the venerable Chipper Jones. His fantastic season in ’07 was nothing short of remarkable. However, he has had some injury problems, but the past two seasons have been marred by freak accidents (slipping in SF and attempting to jump over Bautista in Pittsburgh) which might indicate he may stay healthy. I see some slippage in numbers, but he has been nothing but consistent in his career. Therefore, don’t expect a big drop-off.

The middle of the order has a lot of upside and youth (a dangerous combination). Batting clean-up will be Mark Teixeira, and while he may not get 56 RBI every 54 games, he will probably top 40 HR and 120 RBI (giving him MVP credit and about $5 million more per year on his next contract). The next two spots will be occupied by the most known of the Baby Braves. Jeff Francoeur will likely hit fifth. Expect more HR but not more RBI as Tex might take a few away, but Jeff’s BA should stay put and hopefully his OBP will rise a little more. McCann will take the next spot, and with a healthy year, one can expect a season similar to ’06. He added bulk and flexibility in the offseason, which will hopefully keep him healthier, but remember, he wears the “Tools of Ignorance” so little injuries will always plague him.

At the bottom of the order, a platoon of Matt Diaz / Brandon Jones will likely hit in the seven spot with Mark Kotsay hitting eighth. Diaz has continued to hit, and with a bad spring by Jones, he may get the everyday nod. Expect the .338 BA to drop about 10-15 points, but the HR should rise by about 5. At .282 / .337 for his career, Mark Kotsay has the average and relatively low strike-out numbers to be effective, but the best thing may be to pray hard for a healthy season (2004 was the last time he played in 148 games). Overall this lineup will be difficult to handle with a great mixture of youth and experience. I estimate around 900 runs for a team that finished ’07 with 810.

The bench has been upgraded for this season. Corky Miller seems to be the front-runner to get the backup catcher spot due to his experience and defensive prowess. Scott Thorman will be at first / outfield, and one can only hope he finds the same power swing he had in winter ball. Omar Infante brings some experience and offense (.271 BA) to the bench. Martin Prado might get the nod as the other infielder, and his improved offense (.316 / .374) should help considerably. In the outfield, don’t forget Josh Anderson and Gregor Blanco whose speed and versatility may ultimately make them a good choice either way Bobby decides.

In the rotation, there are a few concerns, but plenty of upside. Expect Tim Hudson to keep up the 16 wins and low 3 ERA, and he should be the ace of the staff. John Smoltz will follow with around 15 wins as well, but expect his ERA to creep up by .1 - .3 as age begins to take its toll. Following Smoltzie and Huddy are the big question marks. Tom Glavine is old and doesn’t throw very hard, but he still finds a way to win. His 4.45 ERA seems a bit scary, but not having to feel the pressure of being the ace and pitch 200 innings may help him out a bit more. Mike Hampton hasn’t pitched since Noah’s flood, but all things in Spring Training point to his stuff being perfectly fine. Expecting 30 starts may be tough to swallow, but 25 seems reasonable (knock on wood … no not you Hampton … uh oh he’s hurt again) from a man determined to get back. In the fifth spot, I think Bennett should get the job with his superb starts at the end of the 2007 season, but he will most likely end up as the long reliever. Jair Jurrjens seems to have nailed this job down with his solid Spring, and I expect to him to be the next coming of John Smoltz (a Tiger traded to Atlanta who has a Hall of Fame career).

The bullpen could be the bright spot for the Braves. Bennett should be very good as a long reliever / spot starter as his late-season performance and losing 50 pounds are good indicators. Will Ohman appears to be the left-hander heading to Atlanta, and fans need to hope his 8.66 ERA in Wrigley is not an indication of what he will do in Atlanta. Manny Acosta and Peter Moylan will be the set-up men, and they should be excellent as they will be the most underrated set-up tandem in baseball. As closer, Rafael Soriano should prove much more effective than Bob Wickman as long as he doesn’t endure the same mid-summer struggles that he had in ’07. I expect him to the dominant guy from early and late ’07. The final spots are left to Blaine Boyer, Chris Resop, and Royce Ring (at least until Smoltz comes off the DL) who have had solid if not spectacular Springs.

As the Braves’ main adversaries, the Mets and Phillies will be tough with which to contend. The Mets have a powerful lineup once again. Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran will lead a very talented core, but without a resurgence from Carlos Delgado, they will not be any better than the Braves. However, the starting rotation could be formidable. Santana will be the ace, and his numbers should be amazing in a pitcher’s park with a much better offense. Pedro may get hurt, but the end of ’07 showed he can still deal (2.57 ERA). Oliver Perez and John Maine will need to prove their standout seasons were not flukes. Perez has seemingly regained his confidence from his early days in Pittsburgh, and John Maine proved very effective. El Duque seems to be the biggest question mark, but the wily veteran still had a 3.72 ERA (yet he still needs to stay healthy … maybe he and Hampton can share some stories and scars). The bullpen may be the big hole. Billy Wagner needs to stay effective and defy age, and Duaner Sanchez needs to return healthy. Otherwise, this bullpen might blow some leads.

The Phillies look almost as good … almost. Their offense may be (okay will be) the best of the NL as they have 3 MVP candidates in Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. However, their pitching has some definite question marks. Cole Hamels and Brett Myers should be a good 1-2 punch, but Myers’ ERA has never been below 3.72 (not good for a no.2) while he started. Kendrick can be effective, but Moyer is bound to finally bow down to old age. There are no indications that Adam Eaton will rebound, so his spot should be up for grabs when Kris Benson becomes healthy. The bullpen is as big of a question mark. Will Lidge be able to pitch in a band box (he has pitched well in CBP)? Will Tom Gordon’s arm finally disintegrate? Is J.C. Romero going to be the guy who got released by the Red Sox or the guy who earned his multi-million dollar contract? These are important questions.

As I look at the finished products, I give the Mets the edge with the Braves second (and the Wild Card team) and the Phillies third. It is hard to ignore the Phillies’ offense, but I don’t expect the pitching staff to surprisingly hold things together like they did last year. The Mets seem to have the best upside in the rotation as they have the best pitcher anywhere alongside three other potential 15-game winners. Their offense should be as good as the Braves’. The deciding factor may come down to the bullpen. If Wagner, Sanchez, and / or Aaron Heilman have issues, this Mets team could become the Braves of ’06 (good offense that gets killed by a lack of bullpen).

Update: Ruben Gotay will get the last infield spot with Lillibridge getting sent down to Richmond. Brayan Peña for backup first base / catcher?