Braves Report

Seems like a fitting title for this time of year. I hope everyone’s bracket is doing better than mine. Luckily, this means I can go back to concentrating on baseball and the Braves. As Spring Training comes to a close in a week, the Braves have some tough decisions to make surrounding the supporting roles. I’ll take a look at each of them and give you my perspective. Things can change in a week (ie. injury, bad slump, etc.), but things are becoming clearer.

Backup Catcher

This is a fan favorite right now because it involves a fan favorite from earlier this decade. Javy Lopez came to camp in great shape, having worked on his defense, and looking to find his spark offensively. He was the favorite also due to his veteran experience. However, things haven’t gone according to plan for Lopez so far. He’s hit only .200 (remember, his main weapon should be his offense) with a .300 OBP, but fortunately for him, 3 out of his five hits have been for extra bases (1 DB, 2 HR). However, his defense has been terrible (1 error, 0/6 in catching base stealers). Brayan Peña hasn’t been too much better offensively with a .316 BA but a .300 OBP (for those of you at home, this isn’t good to have OBP < BA), and he has no extra-base hits. On the other hand, his defense has been superb (0 errors, 3/3 in catching base stealers), and defense seems to be what Cox is looking for. The dark horse for the job may be Clint Sammons, whose calling card is his defense, but his defense hasn’t been particularly good (1 PB, 0/2 in catching base stealers). On offense, he may be doing better than the others with a .286 BA, a .333 OBP, and 2 doubles. Less mentioned is Corky Miller. He’s played the second-most out of this group (behind Javy), and he’s performed okay. He’s hit .200 with a .186 OBP (and a HR!), and on defense he’s thrown out his only base stealer. In the end, this may come down to options. Lopez hasn’t had it, and he may never regain enough to play anywhere (my guess: he’ll retire later this month or early April). Clint Sammons still has options, so the Braves won’t lose anything by sending him back down. This comes down to Peña and Miller with Peña (out of options) seeming the more likely choice. The Braves want to keep him, and he won’t get much in a trade. Miller has passed his prime although he played fairly well last season, and with only a minor league contract, he’s expendable.

My pick: Brayan Peña

Backup First Baseman

Humor me on this. I realize Scott Thorman is the likely choice here. However, rumors have floated around about Wes Helms being on the market as the Phillies look for a reliever, and other rumors have floated around about Thorman leaving. Last season, Helms hit .246 with 5 HR and 19 DB in 280 AB, and Thorman hit .216 with 11 HR and 18 DB. With their defense being comparable, Thorman wins because his 6 extra HR beat out Helms’ better average. However, let’s look at this differently. Helms would come to us rather cheaply (maybe even without one of the four relievers without options). Then, we trade Thorman who would bring us back more than we would lose for Helms. Now, we have Helms who would be a backup third baseman as well as first baseman and give us similar stats. Obviously, this would then leave us without an heir-apparent to Teixeira unless you believe Tyler Flowers will be ready for next season (he did impress everyone, and a good year could get him a promotion come September). Maybe in a combined Thorman and out-of-options reliever trade, we could net a AAA first baseman from someone else who might be able to help. In the end, Thorman will probably stay because I doubt the Braves will take the risk, but it’s an interesting situation. Just a warning, Thorman isn’t having a good spring. Another warning, Joe Borchard is having a good spring and has played first (although terribly), so he could push Thorman out and play first in a pinch. He’s a switch-hitter with some pop, but he seems more appropriate in the outfielders section (read below).

My pick: Scott Thorman

Backup Infielder

Martin Prado or Brent Lillibridge. That’s a difficult question. These two have the most AB’s of any Brave, so Cox is definitely waiting for someone to win the job. When looking at the stats, it’s not even close. Prado is hitting .327 with a .383 OBP in 55 AB to Lillibridge’s .238 and .360 in 42 AB, and Prado has 7 DB to Lillibridge’s 3 DB and 1 TR. Also, Prado has struck out 3 times with 5 walks, while Lillibridge has 12 K with 4 BB, and reports have stated that Lillibridge has had problems with sliders (which caused the 12 K). On defense, Prado has 0 errors in 69 chances with Lillibridge having 2 errors in 52 chances. Also note that Lillibridge is a much better shortstop, and Prado has only 4 games over there to Lillibridge’s 13. However, Prado doesn’t seem to be a butcher there and can play there until Infante is ready if needed. I like Lillibridge, but his spring may be his undoing if he doesn’t pick it up in the next week. I’ll I’ve heard about is his speed, but he has 0 SB as well.

My pick: Martin Prado with Lillibridge there until Infante is ready

Backup Outfielder

Brandon Jones seemed like a lock for this spot at the beginning, but his poor start (.211 BA and 9 K) have probably put him back in Richmond. Joe Borchard also put his name back on the map with a torrid start and still holds a respectable .303 BA, 7 DB, and 11 RBI, but he has struck out 10 times. Yet, he’s probably bound for Richmond unless the Braves decide to keep five outfielders (this means Lillibridge’s chances to start out in Atlanta are shot if this happens) with Borchard able to play first in a pinch, but his inability to play center may make him expendable. The two main candidates seem to be Josh Anderson and Gregor Blanco. Earlier, I would have dismissed Blanco because Cox has never seemed to like him, but his start and new attitude have changed things. Blanco sports a .360 BA with a .540 OBP (8 BB and 1 K) and 2 SB versus Anderson’s .308 BA, .357 OBP (3 BB, 3 K), and 3 SB. Anderson has also made an error with Blanco spotless. His BB/K rate definitely beats out Anderson’s and shows that he may be more consistent (dark horse leadoff man?), but his similar ability to play the outfield and steal bases may leave Anderson in Richmond as Anderson loses his primary assets. Watch this closely in this last week.

My pick: Gregor Blanco

Fifth Starter

Well, Jair Jurrjens seemed to have this sewn up until he imploded versus the Tigers, but it was his former team and it is the Tigers’ lineup. His 6 BB to 5 K also troubles me, but 4 of those walks came in the outing against the Tigers. We’ll have to see how he rebounds because Chuckie has come back. He made a start earlier and another one Tuesday throwing four innings, and he’ll make another soon. Therefore, with another start or two, James could feasibly get enough endurance to get through 5 innings by the end of Spring Training and start the season with the Braves. If Jurrjens rallies back in his next start or two, the job should be his as there will be no reason to rush James, but if he falters and James impresses, Jurrjens will go to Richmond. Also note that Cox likes experience, and James has more of that.

My pick: Jair Jurrjens

Last 3 Spots in the Bullpen

Okay, just hold on because this might get messy, so I’ll just list the stats instead of putting them inside undecipherable text.

Buddy Carlyle 6.55 ERA, 11 IP, 8 ER, 0 BB, 11 K (4 HR!)

Jeff Bennett 3.86 ERA, 7 IP, 3 ER, 4 BB, 0 K (!)

Blaine Boyer 2.70 ERA, 10 IP, 3 ER, 2 BB, 9 K

Chris Resop 2.00 ERA, 9 IP, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

Royce Ring 3.38 ERA, 8 IP, 3 ER, 7 BB (!), 6 K

Tyler Yates 12.00 ERA, 6 IP, 8 ER, 9 BB (!), 4 K

Carlyle and Bennett are vying for what could be the long-relief spot in the bullpen, but neither has been extremely impressive and can be sent down. Carlyle’s BB/K rate is phenomenal, but his 4 HR allowed are not. Bennett’s ERA is better, but for a power guy, he should have more strikeouts. He had the flu, and it still may be affecting him. Out of the two, I’d pick Bennett because I think the K’s will come around, but I have a different solution. Boyer, Resop, and Ring seem to have the best stats among the last four, and I think they could start out the season with Boyer being the long-reliever (why not, he was a starter at the end of last season; he should have the stamina), Resop being a middle reliever (his control seems to be under control- sorry, bad pun), and Ring could be the left-handed specialist (hopefully his control improves) with his side-arm delivery which frees up Ohman to pitch to other lefties or pitch an entire inning. I’m not in love with Yates because he finished last season poorly (you can say he was overworked, but how is 66 IP overworked?) and his Spring makes me nervous, but it’s his control that gets me. Nine walks already! Whatever happened in the second-half last season seems to still be on his mind. If that’s the case, he may be the one traded. For some reason, Cox still loves Yates, but some more bad outings will change his mind. You can use the fact that they gave Yates arbitration to give evidence that he’ll win a spot, but he’s not making much and there was no reason not to.

My pick: Blaine Boyer, Chris Resop, and Royce Ring

Since the 1994 season when I began to pay more attention to professional baseball, I have been a Braves fan. I have garnered an appreciation for the likes of John Schuerholz, Bobby Cox, Chipper Jones, John Smoltz, Andruw Jones, etc., but I realized that I didn’t know a lot about the history of the Braves or the people before 1994. Unfortunately, I have found this to be a common theme about baseball fans in general, so I am starting a series on the history of the Braves focusing on players, managers, and events from the Braves’ past. About every week or so, I’ll publish an article about someone or something in Braves’ history. This week: Phil Niekro.

Born on April Fool’s Day, 1939 in Blaine, Ohio, Phil Niekro is a former Braves pitcher and hall-of-famer. Although boyhood friends with future basketball hall-of-famer John Havlichek, Niekro chose baseball as his passion. Known for his knuckleball, Niekro was able to play baseball for over 20 years, and he didn’t retire until the ripe old age of 48 (Julio Franco anyone?). Over his career, he won 318 games and was beloved not only for his ability to pitch but for his charity and loyalty to a team the often had losing seasons.

On July 19, 1958, Niekro signed a contract with the then-Milwaukee Braves at the age of 19. He toiled in the minors for 5 years until debuting in 1964. Niekro would play the next 20 seasons in Atlanta, including moving with the team to Atlanta in 1966, until being released October 7, 1983. During his time with the Braves, he won 268 games, won five Gold Gloves, was in the top six of the Cy Young voting five times, won the league ERA title in 1967, and made four All-Star appearances. In 1980, Niekro won the Roberto Clemente Award for his play on the field and, especially, for his service to the community. From 1968-1980, the knuckleballer averaged 284 2/3 innings a season, including pitching the most innings in 1974, 1977-1979, and from 1968-80, he was in the top ten in innings pitched each season. However, from 1981-1983, Niekro’s innings began to decline as he no longer could pitch 40 games a season. Therefore, in 1983, he was released.

In January of 1984, Niekro signed with the Yankees as a free-agent, and after an initial season with a 3.09 ERA, his ERA went up to 4.09 the next season. He was released following the 1985 season. In January of 1986, Niekro initially signed with the Yankees again, but he was released and subsequently signed in March and April, respectively. After having a 4.32 ERA in 1986 and a 6.10 ERA in 1987, Niekro was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays who released him a month later in August of 1987. As a publicity and charitable move, Atlanta re-signed Niekro in September 1987, allowing him to end his career as a Brave.

Niekro retired that off-season and went to coach the Colorado Silver Bullets, an all-women baseball team, and he was elected to the Hall of Fame in 1997.

Fun Facts:

- Nephew is Lance Niekro who played for the Giants and is now with the Astros.

- Phil and his brother Joe have the most combined wins for brothers at 539.

- Never played in a World Series in his 24 seasons (a baseball record).

- On August 5, 1973, Niekro no-hit the Padres (the first for the team since moving to Atlanta).

- His 5,404 1/3 innings is the most in the live-ball era.

- Won his 300^th game in a shut-out without throwing his knuckleball until the final batter.

In the 1990’s, Atlanta fans were like children in affluent families. If we saw something we liked, we got it with no questions asked. Be it free-agent acquisitions like Greg Maddux and Andres Galarraga or extended stays from current stars like Tom Glavine and Chipper Jones, Atlanta basically got what it wanted. Here we are in 2008, half a decade into an era of fiscal limitations in Atlanta, and every fan looks at every possible acquisition with the same question: Can we afford him? To understand the future possibilities, all we can do is look at the money and the future of the budget, thanks to the help of the wonderful Cot’s Baseball Contracts website.

2008: The ’08 salary rundown is as follows for projected starters and any other significant earners:

C – Brian McCann - $800,000
1B – Mark Teixeira - $12,500,000
2B – Kelly Johnson – near-minimum
3B – Chipper Jones - $11,000,000
SS – Yunel Escobar – near-minimum
LF – Matt Diaz - $1,225,000
CF – Mark Kotsay – < $3,000,000
RF – Jeff Francoeur – roughly $450,000

BN – Omar Infante - $1,400,000

SP1 – John Smoltz - $14,000,000
SP2 – Tim Hudson - $13,000,000
SP3 – Tom Glavine - $8,000,000
SP4 – Mike Hampton - $15,000,000
SP5 – Chuck James – near-minimum

CP – Rafael Soriano - $2,400,000
RP – Mike Gonzalez - $2,362,500
RP – Will Ohman - $1,600,000
RP – Tyler Yates - $800,000

That gives us a total of roughtly $88.7 million that is being devoted to current arbitration eligible players and the three other key starters earning the minimum. There are a few more things to take into account, though. First, Atlanta is paying Detroit a portion of Edgar Renteria’s salary. Second, there are a negligible amount of other players who will find their way onto the roster this year, driving up the overall payroll at times. Third, Atlanta has been putting money into an account for years to help lessen the blow of the final years of the Mike Hampton contract, so it’s likely that gave Atlanta as much as $7,000,000 of relief this year. All in all, I think this all balances out and we can set our team budget at roughly $88 million for non-minimum earners. This is important for giving us a context with which to view the future payroll. There’s always the chance Liberty Media could cut or expand, but that’s fairly unpredictable, so there’s no point in trying to account for that. With all this in mind, here are the changes for 2009 and beyond.

2009: Mike Hampton’s $15,000,000 comes off the books, along with Mark Teixeira’s $12,500,000 and Tom Glavine’s $8,000,000. Those three alone represent $35,500,000 of 2008 salary that won’t be around for 2009. Add in the expiring deals and near free agency of Mark Kotsay and Will Ohman, and there’s another $4,600,000, bringing the total to roughly $40,000,000. Of course, before we can start looking at free agent possibilities, we have to make sure we cover the future costs of other players. If John Smoltz pitches 200 innings this year, his 2009 option vests for $12,000,000, which actually adds $2 million to the “free money” total and brings it to $42,000,000. Chipper Jones’ vesting option will most likely kick in, and while the specifics are undisclosed, he will not be receiving any more money and might actually save us another $3 million, though that’s unlikely. Rafael Soriano gets a $3.7 million raise, so that brings our free money total down to $38,300,000. Mike Gonzalez will be in his final year of arbitration, and he should see a raise of about $1,500,000 or so, bringing us down to $36,800,000. Omar Infante enters his final year of arbitration and will probably get a half million raise, which knocks us down to $36,300,000. Matt Diaz started arbitration early this year under baseball’s Super Two rule and will probably receive a nice pay raise if his ’08 season is like his previous years. I think $4,000,000 is reasonable, which is a $2,775,000 raise. That brings us down to $33,525,000. Brian McCann gets a $300,000 raise, so that brings us down to $33,225,000. Tyler Yates will get a small raise in arbitration if he’s still here, so let’s just knock that down to $33,000,000. Next, there’s the issue of players like Jeff Francoeur, Chuck James, and Kelly Johnson entering arbitration next offseason. Initially, it won’t be a major problem. First years of arbitration usually don’t yield much salary, but 2^nd and 3^rd years often do. If we estimate James at $1,000,000, Johnson at $2,500,000, and Francoeur at $3,500,000, that brings us back to about $26,000,000 in free usable free agent money.

Why does everyone care? Almost universally among Braves fans, all money worries are focused around re-signing Mark Teixeira, and we can see that with $26,000,000 to spend, Atlanta can definitely re-sign him. However, there will be up to two rotation spots, a bullpen spot, and the CF spot to fill as well as 1B. Atlanta will probably hand CF to Jordan Schafer and turn over the bullpen spot(s) to more cost-effective players. Jair Jurrjens seems like a future fit for the rotation, but after that, will Atlanta be able to trust another young player with the job? If the team makes a play for Teixeira, it seems as if they will most likely have to invest in stop-gap pitching solutions or let young pitchers step up. It’s a big risk to take, especially in the final few years of Smoltz & Chipper this team will be afforded. But what choice does Atlanta really have other than going hard after Teixeira? Let Tyler Flowers take over? Sure, but where will you spend the money instead? C.C. Sabathia? Ben Sheets? Jon Garland? These are all fine pitchers, but they’re also all likely to demand a hefty long-term deal. You know the deal. It’s the same one Atlanta’s trying to get out of with Mike Hampton. It’s smarter to spend on something reliable, and Mark Teixeira’s production will be pretty reliable over time.

Beyond 2009, there is little money owed to Atlanta veterans. John Smoltz has a club option for 2010 if his ’09 option vests. Tim Hudson & the Braves have a mutual option. Brian McCann is the only player guaranteed money in 2010. This means Atlanta should have a full youth movement in place by ’10, maybe one or two veterans still around but mostly low-cost arbitration years contracts to build the team around. At this point, I think the team will have become something we wouldn’t have recognized 15 years ago: a team that utilizes but does not rely on free agent talent, instead stocking the bulk of the team with simultaneously homegrown low-cost players.

2008 should be exciting for Braves fans, but so should the coming years. As you can see, there are many changes on the way, and no one really knows what to expect. While it’s a safe bet to think McCann, Johnson, and Francoeur (and to a lesser degree, Yunel Escobar) will be in the starting lineup in 2 years, there’s no one else that is a great bet to remain a fixture. Uncertainty is exciting, and the payroll situation, beginning with Mark Teixeira this fall, is as big a factor in the uncertainty as anything else. When you start thinking about possible moves Frank Wren could make, just remember to follow the money, because that salary budget is the context within which all Atlanta’s personnel decisions are made.

Here is the second and final part of the Roundtable that team of bloggers recently completed. I would personally like to apologize to our readers for the delay in posting the completion of the the Roundtable.Here is a link to part 1 Roundtable Part 1. So without futher adu, here it is: 
  
- What realistic trade or free agent signing would help the team the most?

Mark : Tough one. At the trade deadline last year, there were some rumors about Ian Snell coming over, and I think that might come up again. I think injuries might devastate our rotation this year, and we’ll need a guy to come in and help. Pittsburgh will be out of contention, and they may not want to go to arbitration with Snell. He’d be cheap financially, and I think we have the farm system to handle the two or three players they would want. We need a young, ace-type pitcher, and he could be it (3.76 ERA, 177 K, 68 BB). I also think Chuckie will be gone by the end of the season. Ian Snell for Brandon Jones, Cole Rohrbough, and Brent Lillibridge. As for a free agent, look for Freddy Garcia to be mentioned in June as he’ll be healthy and ready to go.

Brent : This is, of course, pure fantasy, but Atlanta should trade prospect Brandon Jones to the Boston Red Sox for Coco Crisp. Actually, I like Jones as much as Crisp, but we need reliable options if Mark Kotsay goes down. Crisp would do well in a platoon with Diaz if Cox opted to go that way, and he could split time with Kotsay as well, giving the CF much needed rest. Boston needs to end this stupid battle for CF, because we all know Ellsbury is going to get the job, or at least he should. Jones is worth at least taking a chance on if you’re Boston, and he can play both corners, which is desirable with Manny Ramirez getting older and JD Drew being, uh, JD Drew.

Bsta : I can’t really say for sure. Maybe an extra arm in the pen, or a solid backup.

LSU31: I don’t see any specific move for a player x. I can see us shoring up the bullpen during the season near the deadline but right now that is it.

CB: I think this team is fine as it is. I really like the depth we have at all positions. I could see us signing another, more experienced bullpen guy for the bullpen or trading for someone to work in long relief. But right now, I think we are set at all positions.

- Is this Bobby Cox’s last Spring Training?

Mark : I hope and think not. He still has that desire to go out there every year, and I don’t think he’ll stop after this year. If we win the World Series, there’s a better chance he’ll retire, but I don’t feel like he will.

.Brent : This is a tough call, but I don’t think it is. I think he stays as long as Smoltz stays, and there aren’t any signs that Smoltz is retiring after this season.

Bsta : Let me put it like this, if the Braves win the World Series, yes. Bobby Cox will retire after that. If the Braves fall short, I think he’ll hang around for another year or two.

LSU31: Sadly, I think it is. I always thought Bobby and JS would leave the same year. But with JS leaving the GM post after last season, Bobby was already committed to coming back. I think Terry P. will be the manager for the 2009 championship. Hopefully, the Braves will send Bobby out on a good note.

CB: I’m going to say no. Unless we win the World Series, of course. If we win the Big Enchilada this season, by all means, would love to see him retire as a winner (though him retiring is what enters my bad dreams every night). I really think he has a lot left in the tank. He loves doing this. He even said this is all he knows. I can see him taking a front office job or something with the Braves too. All I know is, he’s going to the Hall as a Brave, and that matters a lot to me.

- Who bats leadoff? Second?

Mark : It seems as though Johnson will hit first and Escobar second because that is how it has worked so far. I think that’s the better arrangement because Kelly has a better reputation for getting on base, and with his new comfort at second base, he won’t work so hard and tire himself out like he did last year.

Brent :
It should be Kelly Johnson at leadoff with Yunel Escobar batting second. Johnson has a legitimately good on-base percentage, and that isn’t a flukey skill. He’s patient, he’s growing as a hitter, and he’s the guy you can trust to benefit the offense most. Escobar isn’t particularly patient, but he does make good contact, and that’s a skill I’d like to see in the #2 hole. Of course, I’ve always felt one of Bobby Cox’ flaws was how he cared more about pure speed than leadoff abilities when choosing his main man, so it wouldn’t shock me at all to see Escobar batting before Kelly Johnson, but I still feel as if that’s a waste of his greatest asset.

Bsta : Yunel will be our leadoff hitter. He’s one of those players who you can stick anywhere in the lineup, and he’ll produce. I expect him to provide a much needed spark in that spot that the Braves have been missing for quite some time now. Behind him we’re going to see Kotsay. Bobby will try Kotsay up front early on to see how he handles it. But I think the lineup is going to change so much that it’s pointless discussing this.

LSU31:I think Kelly will lead-off, after the success he had there last year. Maybe I am crazy but I can see him becoming the first lead-off hitter the Braves have had to hit .300 since Kenny Lofton. Yunel replaces both Edgar’s batting spot and position. He will hit about .285. He will not duplicate the success he experienced last year but will be a very valuable piece to the Braves puzzle in 2008.

CB: Tough question. I think that it’ll flip a lot, but I think the majority of the time, it could be Yunel leading off and getting on base with Kelly batting 2nd. That can flip a lot though, depending on how each player is doing. But I really think Yunel gets more at-bats at leadoff than Kelly.

- Which player who starts in the minors will be in the majors making significant contributions by season’s end?

Mark : Charlie Morton. He seems to have righted the ship, and he’s impressed Cox with his dedication and stuff. Jurrjens or James will start the year at No. 5, but Morton works his way in when Hampton and/or Glavine go down.

Brent : This reminds me of the non-roster question from round 1, but I’m gonna say Jo-Jo Reyes for this answer. I think James and Hampton both share DL time, and Reyes gets another shot, and this time finally shows the major league talent that he has flashed so many times at lower levels.

Bsta : The “surgin’”(that’s mine, don’t steal it) Jurrjen. He’s already putting up spectacular numbers in Spring Training. As I type this, Jair boasts an amazing 1.00 ERA in three games. I know it’s just Spring Training, but it’s still pretty damn impressive.
Now, the way he’s going, Jair should be on the team opening day, but Bobby will probably o with Chuck over him because of his experience and put Jair in Richmond. Don’t expect him to stay there long.

LSU31:Jordan Schafer. Schafer is just too good to be held down in the minors all season. He has been tearing the cover off the ball this spring. He plays good defense also. He will at the very least be called up when the rosters expand on September 1st.

CB: I could see Charlie Morton making a big impact with this team. I mean, you look at what Cox has said about him so far in the spring, and you also look and see that he has great stuff too makes me think he could be in the bullpen by the end of the year. Also, this guy, in my opinion, will start off the season in AAA but will have a major impact on the Braves before the end of May: Chuck James. If/when Hampton goes down, James could come up and step right in.

- Other than the top prospects in the system (Schafer, Lillibridge, Heyward, etc), what minor leaguer would you pay to go watch, and why?

Mark : Does Teheran count as a top prospect? I really want to see what all the hype is about. If not, then Gorkys Hernandez would be my choice. He’s supposedly a five-tool player with blazing speed.

Brent : Considering we’re probably not going to see much of Julio Teheran this year (and he’s a top prospect, so that doesn’t really count), I think I’ve gotta go with Cody Johnson. There isn’t anyone in the organization (that includes the major league level) with as much raw power potential as Cody Johnson. He hit 17 HR in 270 at-bats last year in the Gulf Coast League, batting .305/.374/.630 for the year. And to his credit, he did cut his strikeout rate by nearly a third. Unfortunately, it’s still more than 1/4 of his plate appearances. There’s time to get it to manageable levels, and they’re not that far away. Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard deal with it well, and so can Cody Johnson, hopefully. I plan to go see Johnson play at Rome this year, which really does validate this answer, doesn’t it?

Bsta : Wow. There’s so many. But, if I had to choose one, I’d go with the most recent aquisition, Gorkys Hernandez. He put up awesome stats in the Tigers farm system (.303 BA, .413 SLG over 2 seasons). Now, those stats may not wow you, but remember, he’s only 20 years old. I was really hoping to see him at Spring Training this year, but I guess have to wait ’til next March.LSU31: Jon Gilmore. He could be the replacement for Chipper Jones at third. He can hit. His power is his calling card. He needs to work on his defense and his plate discipline in order to become a big time prospect that he has the potential to be. He hit .284 in 40 games for the GCL Braves.

CB: Brandon Flowers. That guy has pop. And after hearing of his exploits in spring training, I would love to see him play. I hear he’s a lot of fun to watch swing the bat. And there was a good article in the AJC the other day.

- Realistically where do you see this team finishing?
Mark : I think first is not out of the question, especially with everyone counting this as a two-horse race. The Phillies have major pitching issues that I think will come to roost, and the Mets bullpen looks shaky outside of Wagner and Heilman. If Sanchez doesn’t prove to be healthy, they may be a repeat of the ’06 Braves. Honestly, the most likely scenario puts us in with the Wild Card, but I can see us winning the division. If Hampton holds up and one of the young pitchers proves his worth, we’ll be dangerous in the playoffs.

Brent : Realistically, I see the Braves winning between 85 and 90 games, and being in the forefront of the wildcard race. I think 2nd place in the division is realistic, because the Mets really are a better team on paper, and they’re going to win more games unless these minor injury problems they’re having become cataclysmic. Even if that happens, Philadelphia is nearly as good as Atlanta - close enough where a small dose of luck could push them past us. That’s why realistically, I think we wind up 2nd in the division. It doesn’t matter. As Braves fans, we know all too well, however, that wild card teams are often the hottest team in the league. In fact, 2001 was the last time we had two division winners reach the World Series. I’m perfectly fine with the wild card. Let the Mets win 95 in the regular season, much like we used to do. I’d love to take on the Marlins role, for once.

Bsta : 1st place. Yes, I said it. I don’t care who reads this, Mets fans, Philly fans, anybody. The Braves are not to be taken lightly, but everyone seems to be doing just that. And more seriously than in recent years. They act like we have no rotation, batting order, or bullpen. Heh. Do they even look at the team, or do they look at ‘05 and go, “That’s their team this year!?” I truly belive the Braves have the best, and most certainly deepest rotation in the division. They’re also better at most every position than their rivals. The two positions the Braves lose in is SS, and CF. And Ryan Howard is dominating at 1B, but Tex is a more all-around player, and beats out Howard there. And bullpens, though while most aren’t particularly strong, the Braves are certainly better than the Phillies in the department, and are neck and neck with the Mets. And that’s BEFORE Gonzo comes back. No, the Braves are to be taken seriously this year, and I’m not kidding.

LSU31: I realistically see the Braves finishing as the 2008 National League East Champions. Our biggest weakness last year was our number 4 and 5 starters or lack there of. This year we have 7 starters that are capable to pitch well in the majors now. Doing the math means that 2 of the 7 will not be in the rotation. Which means if one or two go down, that we will be able to replace them with a major league ready pitcher. Our offense is probably the best in the division. The average OPS+ in for the 3 NL East contenders for 2008 based on the OPS of the projected starters in 2008 for the 2007 season was lead by the Braves. Only Mark Kotsay did not have an OPS+ of over a hundred. The Braves are being severely underrated by many fans.

CB: 1st in the East. I just think we have a better team all-around than all the other teams. If you look at our rotation depth, which is better than the rest of the teams, the lineup from 1-8, which is ALSO better than the rest of the teams, the bullpen, which I find to be better than most of the teams in the division (when healthy), I just think we have it all this year. Time to start a new streak.

Now, most of you (Braves fans) have probably come across a recent article under the title “Why The Mets Are Better” which came from ESPN and was posted in the AJC. And most of you probably know who wrote the article, and once that was discovered all was understood. But that doesn’t mean we weren’t left angry, or confused. So, even though I’m a bit late (hey, better late than never), I thought I’d post my thoughts on why the Braves are better.

1.) Rotational Depth

If you don’t think the Braves have a deep order then you just haven’t been paying attention. Let’s look at the projected opening day order: Hudson, Glavine, Smoltz, Hampton, and James. Now, I’ll be damned if that doesn’t look pretty solid. But that’s just the starting 5. Now, let’s look to the farm: Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Bennet, and Jo-Jo Reyes. I’m stupid, how many pitchers is that? 8, I think. How many do the Mets have? Let’s see, shall we? Santana, Martinez, Maine, Perez, and Hernandez. With Santana in there, it makes their starting 5 stronger, but not by miles like Mets fans claim. They’re actually pretty evenly matched and are eerily similar. Hudson = Santana; they’re both young, dominant, and have had very few injury problems. Smoltz and Glavine = Hernandez and Martinez; all of them are old, but can still pitch very well, but an injury may be right around the corner. James = Maine; both are very young, good stuff, but are still unproven, and prone to collapse. So, for the most part, both rotation match up, but the Mets fall short when comes to falling back. The Mets, like the Braves, have a rotation that could easily snap with injuries. The Braves have the upper hand though in being able to call on guys. The Mets don’t have much to work with. They pretty much have Pelfrey. If the Mets have injury problems this year I their staff, things could go downhill quick.

2.) Offense

Around the horn, and around the field are superior in most positions to not only the Mets, but the Phillies as well. Teixeira sure as hell beats out Delgado, and is a more all-around player than Howard. At 2B it’s debatable. Utley of course is the winner, but Johnson can go toe to toe with Castillo. At SS, Reyes is better, but don’t scoff at Escobar. Before long, he’ll be a thorn in the Mets’ side. 3B, c’mon now. Please stop with this nonsense that Wright is better than Chipper. No, just no. Last year, Chipper had a .337 BA, with .604 SLG %. Wright had a .325 BA, with a .546 SLG%. That’s over 10 points less than Chipper in BA, and over a 50-point difference in SLG%. And Chipper only played in 20 or so games less than Wright. He ranked in the top 3 in BA, SLG, and OPS last year, and finished 6th in MVP. Chipper was also pretty close to winning the batting title. He also was pretty flashy with the Glove, but despite not even being the top 5 in defense, Wright won the Gold Glove (huh?). Let’s move on. At catcher, don’t even bother. I firmly believe that McCann is the best catcher in all of baseball (better than Mauer and Martin) and most certainly better than Schneider and Ruiz. In left, you could say Alou is better than Diaz, but he’s in the hospital so much how can you tell? Skip Center, Beltran is better than Kotsay. Right Field though, is where it is. There’s not comparison. Francoeur probably has the best arm in baseball, and some best raw talent we’ve seen in quite some time. The Braves have assembled quite a dynamic squad on the field this year.

3.) Bullpen

The Mets fans will be up in arms about this one, but then again this whole article will get them exercising again, so I don’t care. Wagner is old. The Mets are wary of even using him anymore. Soriano (when he wants to) blows away people on the mound. Moylan will have stiff competition with the return of Sanchez (if he’s the SU), and while it’s unlikely he’ll repeat the stellar year he last year, don’t expect him to be a Billy-Ray Cyrus. Filling out the rest of the pen is Boyer, Yates, and Ohman. They can certainly match Sosa, Shoeneweis, and Heilman. But this is the one thing that cements the Braves bullpen as better than the Mets: Mike Gonzalez. When he returns, the Braves are going to get a serious boost that could just catapult past the Mets.

4.) Bench

In the deal for Santana, the Mets gave away their depth. Not just their pitching depth, but also their bench. Also, with deals for Schneider, Pagan, and Stokes the young guys were erased out of the picture. The Braves, meanwhile, have the amazing utility man Omar Infante, powerhouse (if he can make contact) first baseman Scott Thorman, scrappy middle-infielder Martin Prado, and solid outfielders Josh Anderson, and Brandon Jones. Also, don’t be surprised if the tubular, radical Jordan Shafer makes an appearance on the team sometime this year.

5.) Bobby Cox

Yes, Bobby Cox. In what may be his last season in his storied career, don’t expect him to sit idly by and watch the game pass. But don’t expect him to drastically change things up and start losing trust in his players. This is Bobby we’re talking about here. Bobby has been through so many times, and has much more experience than Randolph. He won’t let his team let the Mets run away with things. I mean, we’re talking about four-time manager of the year, the leading manager in ejections, and the fourth winningest manager in baseball history. This may be the end of the road for Bobby, expect him to make the right moves.