Braves Report

As with any quadragenarian, a watchful eye must be kept on that which they call “stuff.”  By stuff, they mean the effectiveness of the pitches in a pitcher’s repertoire.  We only saw 5 innings of John Smoltz on Sunday, and from my seat in section 126 near the left foul pole, he certainly looked great, but perhaps a closer look should be taken to see if Smoltz’ stuff is what it was last year, when he was among the league’s best pitchers.  We’ll do that with the Pitch f/x system, which uses two cameras to trace every single pitch’s movement and speed from the pitcher’s hand to the plate.  2008 is the first year which sees every single stadium equipped with Pitch f/x equipment, and it’s a scouting dream.  Let’s get right to it, shall we?

Smoltz’ Fastball

Velocity - Last year, it mostly hung between 93 and 95, and yesterday was more of the same, and it came very close to hitting 96.  His low speed was 88.7 and he topped out at 95.8.  Most were between 91-94, which is about right for Smoltzie.

Movement - A fastball should “rise” about 10 inches if it has good movement.  Now, thanks to gravity it won’t actually rise 10 inches, but that’s the effect the batter sees.  To a batter, a fastball will have some upward hop.  Smoltz had great movement on his fastball all day.  He threw 10 fastballs that topped 10 inches in vertical movement.  6 of those were taken for a strike.  Another was swung at and missed.  The other 3 were balls.  Either way, when Smoltz gets that nasty fastball movement, batters want no part of it.  All in all, Smoltz threw 27 pitches which Pitch F/X classified as regular fastballs.  Batters swung at 13 of those 27 pitches.  6 were fouled off, 4 were whiffs, and only 3 were put into play, resulting in one hit.  27 fastballs, 1 hit, which was Johan Santana’s bloop double.  Not bad.

Command - This has more to do with Smoltz’ placement than the movement of the ball.  Think about Daniel Cabrera of Baltimore.  If movement and velocity is all you need, Daniel Cabrera would need a cabinet for his Cy Young Awards.  You need command, though.  Of his 27 fastballs, 20 were strikes.  When he missed, it wasn’t by much.  The fastball was on target.

Smoltz’ Slider

Velocity - Smoltz’ slider normally is in the high 80’s, occasionally even hitting the low 90’s.  Yesterday was mostly the same, as the slider sat around  87-88 mph.  Another good indication of solid arm strength, something we worried about with his shoulder problems.

Movement -  #29’sbig ol’ hard slider was normal yesterday, with good hop and slight movement away from right handed hitters.  Smoltz doesn’t throw the typical sliders that you see sweeping across the plate.  His look like a slower fastball that have a small but sharp dive at the end.  It’s very tough to do anything with the slider.  No one got a hit with one yesterday.  There were 10 swings on sliders- 4 fouls, 3 whiffs, and 3 hit into play, all for outs.

Command - Smoltz threw 26 sliders and 16 were taken.  10 were balls, 6 were strikes.  That’s not a big deal.  The slider is thrown when ahead in the count and usually as a chase pitch.  By looking at the data, Smoltz kept the slider in a fairly small range of coordinates, so his command was good.

Smoltz’ Other Pitches

He didn’t throw enough, really, to give us a solid sample size, but here’s a quick review of what he did throw.

Changeup - He tossed 6, and they generally worked well.  His changeup can sometimes get as much hop as his fastball, except at 85 mph, which is scary.  It’s not a pitch he trusts too much, as evidenced by him only throwing 6, so his command may be off, but it’s a pitch that he can really work with if he needs to.  He gave up one hit on a changeup, a Carlos Delgado single in the 4th.

Curveball - 6 curveballs yesterday, pure nastiness.  One got away from him a little and was called for a ball, but 2 were swung at and missed, 2 were called strikes, and Luis Castillo managed to make contact with one in the 3rd for a fly out.  Very impressive and if Smoltz can keep his command up, I think this could be a very underrated pitch.  He doesn’t get great drop on it, though, and that’s probably why he uses it so rarely.  If batters planned for it, it’d be much more hittable.  However, because he uses it sparingly, it can clearly surprise those who are looking for a fastball or a slider.

Splitter - Batters were hitless yesterday against 7 splitters, and Smoltz’ command wasn’t too sharp.  It ran inside to RHB most of the day, and most were called balls.  Two were hit for outs, including the liner that Kotsay doubled up Carlos Delgado on.

Pitches Smoltz rarely throws - Smoltz threw two sinking motion fastballs yesterday, which is unusual for him.  One was fouled off by Beltran in the 1st inning, the other fouled off by Church in the 4th.  Also, there was one cut fastball, something I’m not used to seeing from Smoltz.  It might have been an accident or a momentary Pitch F/X lapse, but it ran toward lefties slightly, which is opposite from his regular 4 seamer.  It was called for a ball, whatever it was.

Conclusion - All in all, it doesn’t look like Smoltz’ stuff has lost any steam from 2007, which is good.  That can sometimes happen.  Look at Pedro Martinez over the years, for instance.  However, Smoltz’ health is still clearly an issue.  After all, that’s what limited him to 78 pitches yesterday.  At least that’s all we have to worry about with our soon-to-be 40 year old.  When he’s pitching, he’s as nasty as he wants to be.  Smoltz was calculating, precise, and careful all the way to 5 shutout innings, 4 baserunners, and 6 strikeouts.  For a 40 year old with shoulder troubles, that’s perfectly fine with me.

By the way, I thought I should also mention this:

FIRST PLACE!!!!!!1! 

(yeah, it’s a tie with Florida, but it’s 1st place just the same.  These games still count in October, y’know.)

NOTE: When I say the ball moves towards right handers, that doesn’t mean it couldn’t be inside to a lefty.  Location and movement are different, and that should be kept in mind.  Think about it this way - if you’re aiming a pitch, that’s one dimension.  Then, the movement I’m talking about is the second effect that determines where the pitch winds up and what the batter sees.  Also, Pitch f/x, for some reason or another, was unable to classify 5 pitches.  Naturally, those weren’t included in the totals you read above.  Also, it’s a relatively new system, and there are bound to be some kinks.  However, what it offers is incredibly cool, especially in the world of scouting.