Braves Report

The Atlanta Braves are in a tough situation.  They’re 6 games under .500 and dealing with injuries across the board.  Several stars the team was depending on are underperforming and there’s no fire in this team’s belly.

But on the other hand, the Braves are only 6 games away from 1st place and only 8 games away from the Wild Card spot.  If they’ve managed to stay this close with such a trying and, at times, miserable first half of the season, the 2nd half can’t get much worse, can it?  So, in the last few weeks before the July 31 trading deadline, what should Atlanta do?

At 43-49, it’s easy to write this team off as an also-ran that will plummet in the season’s waning months.  However, that 43-49 doesn’t really tell the whole story.  A popular story that has been negatively spun all over Atlanta is the team’s record in one-run games.  Now, for all practical purposes, let me just tell you that the team’s record in one-run games is mostly meaningless.  In many of these games, the team was down by multiple runs only to score late in the game to bring it closer.  It doesn’t mean the team is poorly managed, unclutch, or whatever other attribute you can conjure up.  What you can take from the one-run game record is actually something positive, and when you think about it, it’s the mark of a team that is tough to beat:  when the Braves win, they win big, but when they lose, they barely lose.  When you’ve got a chance to win in nearly every game, that’s a good thing.  It’s not as psychological as the mainstream media would have you believe.  It really is some terrible luck. Throughout baseball history, looking at runs scored and runs allowed can, most of the time, accurately predict what a team’s record will be.  The Braves right now have an expected winning % of .538, which would put the team’s record at either 49-43 or 50-42.  What does this mean?  Even though the standings don’t reflect it, the team has played well enough to be in 1st place right now.

I know what you’re thinking; this is all well and good for imaginary baseball, but how does this knowledge help the team get to the playoffs in 2008?  Put simply, it lets the team know that natural improvement may be on the way.  This has happened in baseball before. In 2005, Houston, at the same point, was piddling around at 46-46.  They were 5 games out of a playoff spot.  However, their expected record was 48-46, and more importantly, one of the teams they trailed, the Washington Nationals at 54-40, had an expected record of only 46-48 at the time.  The Astros didn’t bail on their aging team, and they kept fighting.  From that point through the end of the season, the Astros were the NL’s best team, winning 42 of their final 69 games.  The Nationals, on the other hand, plummeted quickly finishing on a 27-41 run as the NL’s worst team.

Sometimes it doesn’t turn around.  The Diamondbacks eluded the cold hard facts last year and made the playoffs while giving up more runs than they scored.  But most of the time, it does balance out.  The Marlins are a team that’s a prime candidate to stumble badly.  The Brewers were headed for a similar fate, but they made the right trade at the right time to try to save themselves.

Am I saying the Braves will reach the playoffs?  No.  They probably won’t.  But that doesn’t mean they can’t, and much, much stranger things have happened in baseball.  The East is still a very winnable division, so now isn’t the time to start bailing on Atlanta’s chances.  Atlanta shouldn’t be a strong buyer this July, because the division is a bit of a long shot, but if there’s any way the team can improve while keeping its top prospects, the Braves should be looking for a trade.  Another arm to stabilize the bullpen, an innings eater in the rotation, or a left field bat would and should all interest the Braves, if the price is right.  At the All-Star break, I’ll get a little more specific on the Braves’ options in this trade market.  For now, I’m just hoping they ignore that ringing phone, because history points to a quick turnaround.

We’re almost halfway through the season, and we’re piddling around .500 with just 38 wins. We’ve had good stretches and bad stretches, but it’s sent us to no destination good or bad, just to .500 and sort of an afterthought in the race. The team has been inconsistent, at times looking like there’s real potential lying underneath, and looking like a AAA team at others. It’s time to give up on the Braves for the year, and I’m about to tell you why.

Players don’t make the playoffs; teams make the playoffs. Right now, Atlanta is being carried by its third baseman. When your 3B is not just your MVP but the guy who is single handedly keeping you in the race, you’re going to find yourself in trouble down the road.

Why can’t we develop a young power hitter with some selectivity at the plate? Instead, the kid with worlds of talent just winds up swinging at too many bad pitches and just concentrates on hitting homers. It’s frustrating to watch a potential MVP out there hacking like that, making enough contact to stay in the lineup but not enough to really make himself the great player he’s capable of becoming.

The bullpen still hasn’t really come together. Our primary lefty for the year has been very good, and our long reliever/spot starter has been a great go-to guy, but what else is there? Our closer was fine until he got hurt. The guy we thought would be our primary set-up man wound up unable to contribute like we’d hoped. Our main righty out of the pen has been solid overall, but he’s blown some big games. We’ve got an inexperienced flamethrower with plenty of potential, but a lack of true command.

The rotation right now has only one veteran, and he’s played well. We’ve also seen a pretty solid young pitcher really turn the corner and become a starter we can rely on. We’ve got a young lefty in the rotation that has an ERA hovering around 4.00, and while you’d like to think he could improve and be a big pitcher for us in the postseason, you can’t help but remember the horrible season he had as a rookie the year before. Elsewhere in the rotation, we’ve got a very promising youngster who has been plagued with wild inconsistency throughout his minor league and major league career. The 24 year old righty has a ton of potential, but will he ever be able to be the pitcher to match his pure stuff?

More than just the internal team problems are the problems within the division. We’re looking up at a team in 1^st place with two of the best sluggers in baseball. Their rotation features one of the best pitchers in the game under the age of 25, and a nice mix of veterans and pitchers still in their prime. To make matters worse, we’re not even their biggest worry right now because we’re not even the team sitting in second place.

Let’s face it, folks. This isn’t happening. This just isn’t gonna be our year.

- July 4, 1991

It’s not all your fault. Unlike the flabbergasted Bill Bavasi in Seattle, you actually built a pretty good team this offseason. Many pieces were in place, but you had to know that while strong, the team was built on a shaky, 40 year old foundation. Surely you have a backup plan in place, right? If so, I think now’s the time to enact said plan.

Something has to be done. The team is playing pitifully. Do you know how many runs the average team scores with the bases loaded and no one out? 2.15 runs. That’s average. That means some teams have scored 4 or even 5 runs in innings like that, probably balancing out the hapless Braves. Now, am I saying this team is incapable of scoring those 2.15 runs that the average team could score in that situation? Not at all. Am I saying they wouldn’t score them tomorrow if the same situation came up? Not at all. I’m simply saying they didn’t score them today, and it seems in line with everything else that’s been happening with this team lately. To Atlanta, tied means losing. When tied entering the 7^th, Atlanta is 2-6. When tied entering the 8^th, we’re 4-7. When tied entering the 9^th, we’re 2-6. In extra innings, we’re now 1-7. This can’t stand.

I’m a pretty analytical guy. You won’t see me writing about how a team needs more heart, more fire, or more grittiness. I don’t believe anyone can will their team to victory and I don’t think team chemistry is real important. But right now, it seems that this team is suffering from more psychological issues than any other team in the game. They just don’t have any confidence, and while I don’t think confidence alone wins games, I do think it’s a requisite for being able to properly execute the things that do win games. Bobby Cox can pep talk them all day and night, but Bobby Cox’ pep talks won’t help ease the stress of making up for John Smoltz’ shoulder, Tom Glavine’s elbow, or Jair Jurrjens’ ankle. Things are falling apart pretty quickly, and this team needs help right now, not on July 31.

It takes a big man to admit he’s wrong, which probably explains why most general managers either blame the players or manager (see: Bavasi) or simply proclaim they’re astounded when things don’t go the way they planned. That’s why most are too stubborn to make the necessary changes until the trade deadline, at zero hour. For Atlanta’s season, zero hour is nearing. Not only is the wild card easily in sight, this division is still very winnable. Now isn’t the time to sit idly by while things slip from our grasp.

They need some help, and by help, I don’t mean another call-up from Richmond, I don’t mean a waiver pick-up from Seattle. This team needs something important, a move to rally around that will lift a little of the load off their shoulders. This team needs a veteran starting pitcher and a veteran bat. There are two teams equipped with both, have no shot of competing this year, and should be looking to deal.

Seattle is 24-42, already a ridiculous 16 ½ games out of first. They’re already looking to 2009. However, there are some gems to be found. Raul Ibanez is a relatively cheap veteran hitter who could really boost the plate discipline and performance of the offense. If we’re willing to take on Jarrod Washburn’s contract for next year, I bet a pair of mid-level prospects could get the deal done. We could retain our top prospects and land some players who could really help the team and soon. Washburn has a scary 6.00 ERA, but that ERA is misleading as he’s mismatched in Seattle and could flourish in Atlanta. Here’s a guy who really isn’t pitching any fundamentally different than he did last year, but he’s suffering due to Seattle’s horrendous defense. Atlanta, conversely, has one of the best defenses in the majors. Washburn isn’t an ace, but he still has his command, can let the defense make plays, and could thrive with a change of scenery.

San Diego is 29-38, in 4^th place, and falling out of the race. While Greg Maddux is a tempting reunion, complete with all the warm fuzzies that come along with having the big three on the same roster, the Padres should be willing to unload Randy Wolf, and right now he’s a better pitcher. He’s cheaper and is a free agent at year’s end. Brian Giles is the sort of impact veteran bat that could really save this team. He’s as patient and smart a hitter as Chipper or Tex. He isn’t going to hit many home runs, but he will help the offense by constantly being on base. Make the other pitcher throw more pitches, get to the middle relievers. That’s how this team can get its confidence back. Start winning 1 run games rather than losing them.

Whether it’s Washburn, Wolf, Maddux, Giles, Ibanez, or someone else, this team needs an influx of not only talent but confidence. This teams needs something, and it isn’t a pep talk from Bobby Cox. My only hope is that we don’t have to wait until July 31 to get the help we need. You give a man medicine when he’s sick, not when he’s dead.

After an impressive 2007 that saw much improvement in plate discipline, it seemed that Jeff Francoeur was poised to take the logical next step forward in 2008.  As of June 9, he is batting .253/.303/.415.  Atlanta fans are clearly still waiting for that step forward.  So what happened?  There’s a fine line between a flawed player and an unlucky player, and we have to look a little deeper to see which area Francoeur falls into.

Francoeur’s batting average on balls in play this year is .278, which tells us that while he can’t chalk up his struggles completely to luck, he hasn’t exactly had balls falling in either.  That naturally corrects itself, so expect Francoeur’s BA to slightly raise in the coming weeks as a result.  However, Francoeur could do things himself to help his BA, notably hitting more line drives.  His line drive rate is his lowest of the last 3 years.  If Francoeur levels his swing a little bit, he could really help his batting average.  It will probably reach .265 on its own by only the sheer probability of the situation.  Francoeur could conceivably make small adjustments to push it to .280 or so, though.

While Frenchy hasn’t taken a step forward, it’s not exactly accurate to say he’s taken a step back.  He has maintained his much-improved walk rate from 2007.  He has cut his strikeout rate to the lowest it’s ever been.  He’s more selective than at any other point in his career, seeing a personal best 3.48 pitches per plate appearance this year.  Not only is he seeing more total pitches, he’s seeing more balls.  66% of the pitches he’s seen have been strikes, a career low.  He’s more patient than ever – he’s taking more strikes than ever in his career and he has the fewest swinging strikes of his career as well.  His contact rate of 77% is a career high.

However, this improvement in pitch selection might also be the accidental root of his problems.  Frenchy is pulling the ball less than ever, and he’s hitting a pretty hefty chunk of his fly balls to dead center field, where it’s less likely to go out.  If he can pull the trigger on some fastballs a little sooner, and pull them into the left field stands, all while maintaining his improved plate discipline, I think he could finally pick things up.

The power is still there as well.  He’s hitting a home run about as often as he did last year, and he’s hitting doubles with increased frequency.  His average home run distance, courtesy of HitTracker, has only dropped 3 feet, and he’s clearing the wall on those shots with ease.

All in all, while the lack of results is troubling, there aren’t any serious warning signs in Jeff Francoeur’s peripheral stats.  Yes, it’d be nice if he improved his home run rate and walk rate, but there’s no regression to worry about.  Sometimes the game just isn’t kind to players for a month or two, and it looks like that’s the main culprit with Jeff’s meager season totals so far.  Among things that he can control, he’s not any worse than recent seasons.  In fact, he’s better in some areas.  There are things he could still do, but as fans and, in my case, faux-analysts, we have to remember that he’s only 24 and still has plenty of time to grow as a hitter before we start thinking his ceiling has been reached.  The stats show that the wheels are turning in his head, and he’s progressing in little ways every year, even if the results aren’t all evident in black and white.  Count me as still very optimistic.

As with any quadragenarian, a watchful eye must be kept on that which they call “stuff.”  By stuff, they mean the effectiveness of the pitches in a pitcher’s repertoire.  We only saw 5 innings of John Smoltz on Sunday, and from my seat in section 126 near the left foul pole, he certainly looked great, but perhaps a closer look should be taken to see if Smoltz’ stuff is what it was last year, when he was among the league’s best pitchers.  We’ll do that with the Pitch f/x system, which uses two cameras to trace every single pitch’s movement and speed from the pitcher’s hand to the plate.  2008 is the first year which sees every single stadium equipped with Pitch f/x equipment, and it’s a scouting dream.  Let’s get right to it, shall we?

Smoltz’ Fastball

Velocity – Last year, it mostly hung between 93 and 95, and yesterday was more of the same, and it came very close to hitting 96.  His low speed was 88.7 and he topped out at 95.8.  Most were between 91-94, which is about right for Smoltzie.

Movement – A fastball should “rise” about 10 inches if it has good movement.  Now, thanks to gravity it won’t actually rise 10 inches, but that’s the effect the batter sees.  To a batter, a fastball will have some upward hop.  Smoltz had great movement on his fastball all day.  He threw 10 fastballs that topped 10 inches in vertical movement.  6 of those were taken for a strike.  Another was swung at and missed.  The other 3 were balls.  Either way, when Smoltz gets that nasty fastball movement, batters want no part of it.  All in all, Smoltz threw 27 pitches which Pitch F/X classified as regular fastballs.  Batters swung at 13 of those 27 pitches.  6 were fouled off, 4 were whiffs, and only 3 were put into play, resulting in one hit.  27 fastballs, 1 hit, which was Johan Santana’s bloop double.  Not bad.

Command – This has more to do with Smoltz’ placement than the movement of the ball.  Think about Daniel Cabrera of Baltimore.  If movement and velocity is all you need, Daniel Cabrera would need a cabinet for his Cy Young Awards.  You need command, though.  Of his 27 fastballs, 20 were strikes.  When he missed, it wasn’t by much.  The fastball was on target.

Smoltz’ Slider

Velocity – Smoltz’ slider normally is in the high 80′s, occasionally even hitting the low 90′s.  Yesterday was mostly the same, as the slider sat around  87-88 mph.  Another good indication of solid arm strength, something we worried about with his shoulder problems.

Movement -  #29′sbig ol’ hard slider was normal yesterday, with good hop and slight movement away from right handed hitters.  Smoltz doesn’t throw the typical sliders that you see sweeping across the plate.  His look like a slower fastball that have a small but sharp dive at the end.  It’s very tough to do anything with the slider.  No one got a hit with one yesterday.  There were 10 swings on sliders- 4 fouls, 3 whiffs, and 3 hit into play, all for outs.

Command – Smoltz threw 26 sliders and 16 were taken.  10 were balls, 6 were strikes.  That’s not a big deal.  The slider is thrown when ahead in the count and usually as a chase pitch.  By looking at the data, Smoltz kept the slider in a fairly small range of coordinates, so his command was good.

Smoltz’ Other Pitches

He didn’t throw enough, really, to give us a solid sample size, but here’s a quick review of what he did throw.

Changeup – He tossed 6, and they generally worked well.  His changeup can sometimes get as much hop as his fastball, except at 85 mph, which is scary.  It’s not a pitch he trusts too much, as evidenced by him only throwing 6, so his command may be off, but it’s a pitch that he can really work with if he needs to.  He gave up one hit on a changeup, a Carlos Delgado single in the 4th.

Curveball – 6 curveballs yesterday, pure nastiness.  One got away from him a little and was called for a ball, but 2 were swung at and missed, 2 were called strikes, and Luis Castillo managed to make contact with one in the 3rd for a fly out.  Very impressive and if Smoltz can keep his command up, I think this could be a very underrated pitch.  He doesn’t get great drop on it, though, and that’s probably why he uses it so rarely.  If batters planned for it, it’d be much more hittable.  However, because he uses it sparingly, it can clearly surprise those who are looking for a fastball or a slider.

Splitter – Batters were hitless yesterday against 7 splitters, and Smoltz’ command wasn’t too sharp.  It ran inside to RHB most of the day, and most were called balls.  Two were hit for outs, including the liner that Kotsay doubled up Carlos Delgado on.

Pitches Smoltz rarely throws – Smoltz threw two sinking motion fastballs yesterday, which is unusual for him.  One was fouled off by Beltran in the 1st inning, the other fouled off by Church in the 4th.  Also, there was one cut fastball, something I’m not used to seeing from Smoltz.  It might have been an accident or a momentary Pitch F/X lapse, but it ran toward lefties slightly, which is opposite from his regular 4 seamer.  It was called for a ball, whatever it was.

Conclusion – All in all, it doesn’t look like Smoltz’ stuff has lost any steam from 2007, which is good.  That can sometimes happen.  Look at Pedro Martinez over the years, for instance.  However, Smoltz’ health is still clearly an issue.  After all, that’s what limited him to 78 pitches yesterday.  At least that’s all we have to worry about with our soon-to-be 40 year old.  When he’s pitching, he’s as nasty as he wants to be.  Smoltz was calculating, precise, and careful all the way to 5 shutout innings, 4 baserunners, and 6 strikeouts.  For a 40 year old with shoulder troubles, that’s perfectly fine with me.

By the way, I thought I should also mention this:

FIRST PLACE!!!!!!1! 

(yeah, it’s a tie with Florida, but it’s 1st place just the same.  These games still count in October, y’know.)

NOTE: When I say the ball moves towards right handers, that doesn’t mean it couldn’t be inside to a lefty.  Location and movement are different, and that should be kept in mind.  Think about it this way – if you’re aiming a pitch, that’s one dimension.  Then, the movement I’m talking about is the second effect that determines where the pitch winds up and what the batter sees.  Also, Pitch f/x, for some reason or another, was unable to classify 5 pitches.  Naturally, those weren’t included in the totals you read above.  Also, it’s a relatively new system, and there are bound to be some kinks.  However, what it offers is incredibly cool, especially in the world of scouting.