But on the other hand, the Braves are only 6 games away from 1st place and only 8 games away from the Wild Card spot.  If they’ve managed to stay this close with such a trying and, at times, miserable first half of the season, the 2nd half can’t get much worse, can it?  So, in the last few weeks before the July 31 trading deadline, what should Atlanta do?

At 43-49, it’s easy to write this team off as an also-ran that will plummet in the season’s waning months.  However, that 43-49 doesn’t really tell the whole story.  A popular story that has been negatively spun all over Atlanta is the team’s record in one-run games.  Now, for all practical purposes, let me just tell you that the team’s record in one-run games is mostly meaningless.  In many of these games, the team was down by multiple runs only to score late in the game to bring it closer.  It doesn’t mean the team is poorly managed, unclutch, or whatever other attribute you can conjure up.  What you can take from the one-run game record is actually something positive, and when you think about it, it’s the mark of a team that is tough to beat:  when the Braves win, they win big, but when they lose, they barely lose.  When you’ve got a chance to win in nearly every game, that’s a good thing.  It’s not as psychological as the mainstream media would have you believe.  It really is some terrible luck. Throughout baseball history, looking at runs scored and runs allowed can, most of the time, accurately predict what a team’s record will be.  The Braves right now have an expected winning % of .538, which would put the team’s record at either 49-43 or 50-42.  What does this mean?  Even though the standings don’t reflect it, the team has played well enough to be in 1st place right now.

I know what you’re thinking; this is all well and good for imaginary baseball, but how does this knowledge help the team get to the playoffs in 2008?  Put simply, it lets the team know that natural improvement may be on the way.  This has happened in baseball before. In 2005, Houston, at the same point, was piddling around at 46-46.  They were 5 games out of a playoff spot.  However, their expected record was 48-46, and more importantly, one of the teams they trailed, the Washington Nationals at 54-40, had an expected record of only 46-48 at the time.  The Astros didn’t bail on their aging team, and they kept fighting.  From that point through the end of the season, the Astros were the NL’s best team, winning 42 of their final 69 games.  The Nationals, on the other hand, plummeted quickly finishing on a 27-41 run as the NL’s worst team.

Sometimes it doesn’t turn around.  The Diamondbacks eluded the cold hard facts last year and made the playoffs while giving up more runs than they scored.  But most of the time, it does balance out.  The Marlins are a team that’s a prime candidate to stumble badly.  The Brewers were headed for a similar fate, but they made the right trade at the right time to try to save themselves.

Am I saying the Braves will reach the playoffs?  No.  They probably won’t.  But that doesn’t mean they can’t, and much, much stranger things have happened in baseball.  The East is still a very winnable division, so now isn’t the time to start bailing on Atlanta’s chances.  Atlanta shouldn’t be a strong buyer this July, because the division is a bit of a long shot, but if there’s any way the team can improve while keeping its top prospects, the Braves should be looking for a trade.  Another arm to stabilize the bullpen, an innings eater in the rotation, or a left field bat would and should all interest the Braves, if the price is right.  At the All-Star break, I’ll get a little more specific on the Braves’ options in this trade market.  For now, I’m just hoping they ignore that ringing phone, because history points to a quick turnaround.

Players don’t make the playoffs; teams make the playoffs. Right now, Atlanta is being carried by its third baseman. When your 3B is not just your MVP but the guy who is single handedly keeping you in the race, you’re going to find yourself in trouble down the road.

Why can’t we develop a young power hitter with some selectivity at the plate? Instead, the kid with worlds of talent just winds up swinging at too many bad pitches and just concentrates on hitting homers. It’s frustrating to watch a potential MVP out there hacking like that, making enough contact to stay in the lineup but not enough to really make himself the great player he’s capable of becoming.

The bullpen still hasn’t really come together. Our primary lefty for the year has been very good, and our long reliever/spot starter has been a great go-to guy, but what else is there? Our closer was fine until he got hurt. The guy we thought would be our primary set-up man wound up unable to contribute like we’d hoped. Our main righty out of the pen has been solid overall, but he’s blown some big games. We’ve got an inexperienced flamethrower with plenty of potential, but a lack of true command.

The rotation right now has only one veteran, and he’s played well. We’ve also seen a pretty solid young pitcher really turn the corner and become a starter we can rely on. We’ve got a young lefty in the rotation that has an ERA hovering around 4.00, and while you’d like to think he could improve and be a big pitcher for us in the postseason, you can’t help but remember the horrible season he had as a rookie the year before. Elsewhere in the rotation, we’ve got a very promising youngster who has been plagued with wild inconsistency throughout his minor league and major league career. The 24 year old righty has a ton of potential, but will he ever be able to be the pitcher to match his pure stuff?

More than just the internal team problems are the problems within the division. We’re looking up at a team in 1^st place with two of the best sluggers in baseball. Their rotation features one of the best pitchers in the game under the age of 25, and a nice mix of veterans and pitchers still in their prime. To make matters worse, we’re not even their biggest worry right now because we’re not even the team sitting in second place.

Let’s face it, folks. This isn’t happening. This just isn’t gonna be our year.

- July 4, 1991

Something has to be done. The team is playing pitifully. Do you know how many runs the average team scores with the bases loaded and no one out? 2.15 runs. That’s average. That means some teams have scored 4 or even 5 runs in innings like that, probably balancing out the hapless Braves. Now, am I saying this team is incapable of scoring those 2.15 runs that the average team could score in that situation? Not at all. Am I saying they wouldn’t score them tomorrow if the same situation came up? Not at all. I’m simply saying they didn’t score them today, and it seems in line with everything else that’s been happening with this team lately. To Atlanta, tied means losing. When tied entering the 7^th, Atlanta is 2-6. When tied entering the 8^th, we’re 4-7. When tied entering the 9^th, we’re 2-6. In extra innings, we’re now 1-7. This can’t stand.

I’m a pretty analytical guy. You won’t see me writing about how a team needs more heart, more fire, or more grittiness. I don’t believe anyone can will their team to victory and I don’t think team chemistry is real important. But right now, it seems that this team is suffering from more psychological issues than any other team in the game. They just don’t have any confidence, and while I don’t think confidence alone wins games, I do think it’s a requisite for being able to properly execute the things that do win games. Bobby Cox can pep talk them all day and night, but Bobby Cox’ pep talks won’t help ease the stress of making up for John Smoltz’ shoulder, Tom Glavine’s elbow, or Jair Jurrjens’ ankle. Things are falling apart pretty quickly, and this team needs help right now, not on July 31.

It takes a big man to admit he’s wrong, which probably explains why most general managers either blame the players or manager (see: Bavasi) or simply proclaim they’re astounded when things don’t go the way they planned. That’s why most are too stubborn to make the necessary changes until the trade deadline, at zero hour. For Atlanta’s season, zero hour is nearing. Not only is the wild card easily in sight, this division is still very winnable. Now isn’t the time to sit idly by while things slip from our grasp.

They need some help, and by help, I don’t mean another call-up from Richmond, I don’t mean a waiver pick-up from Seattle. This team needs something important, a move to rally around that will lift a little of the load off their shoulders. This team needs a veteran starting pitcher and a veteran bat. There are two teams equipped with both, have no shot of competing this year, and should be looking to deal.

Seattle is 24-42, already a ridiculous 16 ½ games out of first. They’re already looking to 2009. However, there are some gems to be found. Raul Ibanez is a relatively cheap veteran hitter who could really boost the plate discipline and performance of the offense. If we’re willing to take on Jarrod Washburn’s contract for next year, I bet a pair of mid-level prospects could get the deal done. We could retain our top prospects and land some players who could really help the team and soon. Washburn has a scary 6.00 ERA, but that ERA is misleading as he’s mismatched in Seattle and could flourish in Atlanta. Here’s a guy who really isn’t pitching any fundamentally different than he did last year, but he’s suffering due to Seattle’s horrendous defense. Atlanta, conversely, has one of the best defenses in the majors. Washburn isn’t an ace, but he still has his command, can let the defense make plays, and could thrive with a change of scenery.

San Diego is 29-38, in 4^th place, and falling out of the race. While Greg Maddux is a tempting reunion, complete with all the warm fuzzies that come along with having the big three on the same roster, the Padres should be willing to unload Randy Wolf, and right now he’s a better pitcher. He’s cheaper and is a free agent at year’s end. Brian Giles is the sort of impact veteran bat that could really save this team. He’s as patient and smart a hitter as Chipper or Tex. He isn’t going to hit many home runs, but he will help the offense by constantly being on base. Make the other pitcher throw more pitches, get to the middle relievers. That’s how this team can get its confidence back. Start winning 1 run games rather than losing them.

Whether it’s Washburn, Wolf, Maddux, Giles, Ibanez, or someone else, this team needs an influx of not only talent but confidence. This teams needs something, and it isn’t a pep talk from Bobby Cox. My only hope is that we don’t have to wait until July 31 to get the help we need. You give a man medicine when he’s sick, not when he’s dead.

Francoeur’s batting average on balls in play this year is .278, which tells us that while he can’t chalk up his struggles completely to luck, he hasn’t exactly had balls falling in either.  That naturally corrects itself, so expect Francoeur’s BA to slightly raise in the coming weeks as a result.  However, Francoeur could do things himself to help his BA, notably hitting more line drives.  His line drive rate is his lowest of the last 3 years.  If Francoeur levels his swing a little bit, he could really help his batting average.  It will probably reach .265 on its own by only the sheer probability of the situation.  Francoeur could conceivably make small adjustments to push it to .280 or so, though.

While Frenchy hasn’t taken a step forward, it’s not exactly accurate to say he’s taken a step back.  He has maintained his much-improved walk rate from 2007.  He has cut his strikeout rate to the lowest it’s ever been.  He’s more selective than at any other point in his career, seeing a personal best 3.48 pitches per plate appearance this year.  Not only is he seeing more total pitches, he’s seeing more balls.  66% of the pitches he’s seen have been strikes, a career low.  He’s more patient than ever – he’s taking more strikes than ever in his career and he has the fewest swinging strikes of his career as well.  His contact rate of 77% is a career high.

However, this improvement in pitch selection might also be the accidental root of his problems.  Frenchy is pulling the ball less than ever, and he’s hitting a pretty hefty chunk of his fly balls to dead center field, where it’s less likely to go out.  If he can pull the trigger on some fastballs a little sooner, and pull them into the left field stands, all while maintaining his improved plate discipline, I think he could finally pick things up.

The power is still there as well.  He’s hitting a home run about as often as he did last year, and he’s hitting doubles with increased frequency.  His average home run distance, courtesy of HitTracker, has only dropped 3 feet, and he’s clearing the wall on those shots with ease.

All in all, while the lack of results is troubling, there aren’t any serious warning signs in Jeff Francoeur’s peripheral stats.  Yes, it’d be nice if he improved his home run rate and walk rate, but there’s no regression to worry about.  Sometimes the game just isn’t kind to players for a month or two, and it looks like that’s the main culprit with Jeff’s meager season totals so far.  Among things that he can control, he’s not any worse than recent seasons.  In fact, he’s better in some areas.  There are things he could still do, but as fans and, in my case, faux-analysts, we have to remember that he’s only 24 and still has plenty of time to grow as a hitter before we start thinking his ceiling has been reached.  The stats show that the wheels are turning in his head, and he’s progressing in little ways every year, even if the results aren’t all evident in black and white.  Count me as still very optimistic.

Smoltz’ Fastball

Velocity – Last year, it mostly hung between 93 and 95, and yesterday was more of the same, and it came very close to hitting 96.  His low speed was 88.7 and he topped out at 95.8.  Most were between 91-94, which is about right for Smoltzie.

Movement – A fastball should “rise” about 10 inches if it has good movement.  Now, thanks to gravity it won’t actually rise 10 inches, but that’s the effect the batter sees.  To a batter, a fastball will have some upward hop.  Smoltz had great movement on his fastball all day.  He threw 10 fastballs that topped 10 inches in vertical movement.  6 of those were taken for a strike.  Another was swung at and missed.  The other 3 were balls.  Either way, when Smoltz gets that nasty fastball movement, batters want no part of it.  All in all, Smoltz threw 27 pitches which Pitch F/X classified as regular fastballs.  Batters swung at 13 of those 27 pitches.  6 were fouled off, 4 were whiffs, and only 3 were put into play, resulting in one hit.  27 fastballs, 1 hit, which was Johan Santana’s bloop double.  Not bad.

Command – This has more to do with Smoltz’ placement than the movement of the ball.  Think about Daniel Cabrera of Baltimore.  If movement and velocity is all you need, Daniel Cabrera would need a cabinet for his Cy Young Awards.  You need command, though.  Of his 27 fastballs, 20 were strikes.  When he missed, it wasn’t by much.  The fastball was on target.

Smoltz’ Slider

Velocity – Smoltz’ slider normally is in the high 80′s, occasionally even hitting the low 90′s.  Yesterday was mostly the same, as the slider sat around  87-88 mph.  Another good indication of solid arm strength, something we worried about with his shoulder problems.

Movement -  #29′sbig ol’ hard slider was normal yesterday, with good hop and slight movement away from right handed hitters.  Smoltz doesn’t throw the typical sliders that you see sweeping across the plate.  His look like a slower fastball that have a small but sharp dive at the end.  It’s very tough to do anything with the slider.  No one got a hit with one yesterday.  There were 10 swings on sliders- 4 fouls, 3 whiffs, and 3 hit into play, all for outs.

Command – Smoltz threw 26 sliders and 16 were taken.  10 were balls, 6 were strikes.  That’s not a big deal.  The slider is thrown when ahead in the count and usually as a chase pitch.  By looking at the data, Smoltz kept the slider in a fairly small range of coordinates, so his command was good.

Smoltz’ Other Pitches

He didn’t throw enough, really, to give us a solid sample size, but here’s a quick review of what he did throw.

Changeup – He tossed 6, and they generally worked well.  His changeup can sometimes get as much hop as his fastball, except at 85 mph, which is scary.  It’s not a pitch he trusts too much, as evidenced by him only throwing 6, so his command may be off, but it’s a pitch that he can really work with if he needs to.  He gave up one hit on a changeup, a Carlos Delgado single in the 4th.

Curveball – 6 curveballs yesterday, pure nastiness.  One got away from him a little and was called for a ball, but 2 were swung at and missed, 2 were called strikes, and Luis Castillo managed to make contact with one in the 3rd for a fly out.  Very impressive and if Smoltz can keep his command up, I think this could be a very underrated pitch.  He doesn’t get great drop on it, though, and that’s probably why he uses it so rarely.  If batters planned for it, it’d be much more hittable.  However, because he uses it sparingly, it can clearly surprise those who are looking for a fastball or a slider.

Splitter – Batters were hitless yesterday against 7 splitters, and Smoltz’ command wasn’t too sharp.  It ran inside to RHB most of the day, and most were called balls.  Two were hit for outs, including the liner that Kotsay doubled up Carlos Delgado on.

Pitches Smoltz rarely throws – Smoltz threw two sinking motion fastballs yesterday, which is unusual for him.  One was fouled off by Beltran in the 1st inning, the other fouled off by Church in the 4th.  Also, there was one cut fastball, something I’m not used to seeing from Smoltz.  It might have been an accident or a momentary Pitch F/X lapse, but it ran toward lefties slightly, which is opposite from his regular 4 seamer.  It was called for a ball, whatever it was.

Conclusion – All in all, it doesn’t look like Smoltz’ stuff has lost any steam from 2007, which is good.  That can sometimes happen.  Look at Pedro Martinez over the years, for instance.  However, Smoltz’ health is still clearly an issue.  After all, that’s what limited him to 78 pitches yesterday.  At least that’s all we have to worry about with our soon-to-be 40 year old.  When he’s pitching, he’s as nasty as he wants to be.  Smoltz was calculating, precise, and careful all the way to 5 shutout innings, 4 baserunners, and 6 strikeouts.  For a 40 year old with shoulder troubles, that’s perfectly fine with me.

By the way, I thought I should also mention this:

FIRST PLACE!!!!!!1! 

(yeah, it’s a tie with Florida, but it’s 1st place just the same.  These games still count in October, y’know.)

NOTE: When I say the ball moves towards right handers, that doesn’t mean it couldn’t be inside to a lefty.  Location and movement are different, and that should be kept in mind.  Think about it this way – if you’re aiming a pitch, that’s one dimension.  Then, the movement I’m talking about is the second effect that determines where the pitch winds up and what the batter sees.  Also, Pitch f/x, for some reason or another, was unable to classify 5 pitches.  Naturally, those weren’t included in the totals you read above.  Also, it’s a relatively new system, and there are bound to be some kinks.  However, what it offers is incredibly cool, especially in the world of scouting.

 Atlanta has conventional stars, like most teams, but it is production from the players at the non-traditional offensive positions that makes this offense so special.  That all begins with catcher Brian McCann.  After an outstanding 2006, McCann came back to earth in 2007 but still was quite helpful in the offense.  Expect a slight rebound in 2008, and there’s no reason McCann can’t hit near or higher than .300 this year.  Moving around the infield, 2007 mid-season acquisition Mark Teixeira is primed for his first full season in Atlanta.  Last year Teixeira hit roughly .800/.933/1.350 for two months in Atlanta – I kid, but doesn’t that seem strangely accurate?  Given that Teixeira, who besides being an ideal #3 or #4 hitter is also a Gold Glove candidate, is only guaranteed to be a Brave through the end of this season, the pressure is on the organization to take advantage of this great window of opportunity.  Across the diamond, team leader Chipper Jones returns for his 14^th full season in Atlanta after leading the majors in EqA in 2007.  With Chipper, it’s never a question of whether he will produce, but whether he’ll be on the field enough to produce.  While Chipper has announced quite a lofty goal of 150 games, Braves fans will be happy with 130, a total he’s reached only twice in the 4 years since he returned to 3B.  Lost somewhere in Jones’ chase for the NL batting title last season was Chipper’s sudden and surprising improvement on defense.  Never a favorite among defensive analysts, Chipper upgraded his game last year, which was a huge help to Atlanta.  According to Revised Zone Rating, Chipper was among the league leaders in Out of Zone plays.  Up the middle, Atlanta will rely on 2B Kelly Johnson, an on-base machine who could approach 20 HR and who should be much improved defensively in his 2^nd season at the position.  In 2007, coming off Tommy John surgery, Johnson played plus defense and was a quiet offensive force.  If he gets any better, he arguably becomes Atlanta’s most valuable player.  His double play mate will be SS Yunel Escobar, a solid defender whose best offensive attribute is his ability to make consistent contact.  While unlikely to match last season’s impressive stats, Yunel should still be reliable .

 Anchoring the outfield will be RF Jeff Francoeur, who spent 2007 working on his biggest problem – plate discipline.  It’s rare to see players try to reinvent their hitting approaches and much rarer to see them have such success in doing so.  Granted, a cursory glance at Francoeur’s ’07 season might indicate a loss of power, given that his HR count dipped from 29 to 19.  However, Francoeur cut his strikeout rate, doubled his walk rate, and got more loft in his swing, increasing his fly ball and line drive rates.  In 2008, Francoeur should finally put it all together, and I’m calling for a .300/.350/.500 season with 30 HR.  Given that he has added 17 pounds of muscle this offseason and considering the natural progression of offensive growth, that could be quite a realistic forecast and possibly even a modest one.  In CF is newcomer Mark Kotsay, who hasn’t been healthy since Mike Hampton was simply an overpaid pitcher rather than an overpaid injured pitcher.  Kotsay’s back problems are unlikely to go away for good, but if he can rediscover his youth just a bit in Atlanta, he should be at least league-average offensively.  His defense won’t remind anyone of his predecessor, Andruw Jones, but it won’t be as big a drop-off as might have been expected when Atlanta announced Jones’ departure.  Since Kotsay comes extraordinarily cheap, Atlanta is hoping he can be on the field for 125 or so games, and contribute a line somewhere in the vicinity of .275/.325/.400.  In left field, Atlanta returns Matt Diaz, who will continue to be the quietest .300 hitter in the game.  Despite Bobby Cox’ natural instinct to platoon Diaz, he has the ability to hit right-handers at a .300+ clip and his defense was ranked 5^th among Major League LF according to fielding guru John Dewan’s +/- ratings.

 While the offensive optimism is unbridled, a look at the pitching staff encourages more optimism, but with a dose of caution.  Leading the way is John Smoltz, who returns for another season as Atlanta’s ace.  While his increasing age is of course a red flag for injury concerns (which we’re already seeing with his shoulder), Smoltz is one of the 5 most reliable pitchers in the game in terms of predictable performance.  He’s probably not going to go 1996 on us anymore, but we can trust that he’ll pitch like the ace he’s counted on to be.  Atlanta also returns #2 starter Tim Hudson, who in 2007 finally put an end to his National League struggles.  The groundball pitcher should be due for an even better 2008 considering he’ll have a full year of Mark Teixeira and Yunel Escobar in the field, both of whom are vast improvements over last year’s combo of Scott Thorman and Edgar Renteria, and Huddy will also benefit from Kelly Johnson’s defensive progression.  Sliding into the third slot is the familiar face of Tom Glavine.  Let’s not get too nostalgic about this signing – Glavine isn’t the pitcher he used to be, we don’t need him to be the pitcher he used to be, and we’re not paying him to be the pitcher he used to be.  That’s important to remember when we take a look in June and see an ERA closer to 4.50 than what we’re used to from him, which is about half that.  42 year olds without strikeout capabilities don’t tend to age as gracefully as the John Smoltzes of the world, so let’s not expect too much.  With that being said, what Glavine will lose by moving from pitcher-friendly Shea to neutral Turner Field, I think he’ll make up for in happiness.  Glavine will be more at home in Atlanta, and that will play a part, even if it’s a small one.  Next is the young Jair Jurrjens, acquired in the Edgar Renteria trade.  His impressive spring made it impossible to leave him in Richmond to begin the season, and to be quite honest, I think he might be the 3rd best pitcher on the team.  Jurrjens won’t blow you away with ability, but his pitch selection and pitch location are his biggest strengths, and that’s something we’ve been missing in Atlanta.  The fifth starter will be – and I can’t believe I’m actually typing this sentence in late March – Mike Hampton.  The last time Mike Hampton threw a major league pitch, Darren McFadden was entering college and hoping for some playing time as a freshman.  As McFadden prepares for the NFL draft, one can’t help but think that even if Hampton is truly healthy, and I really hope he is – won’t there be some rust after so long?  His spring has looked decent enough to make me think he might actually be able to help.  If Hampton can defy critics, Father Time, and Mother Nature, he’ll be a great boost for this team, possibly enough to push them well past the Mets.  If he can’t, don’t worry – Atlanta will still be in the race.  If the old guys get hurt, Jurrjens struggles, or Hampton remembers his true identity, Atlanta has several other options for the rotation, and it’s that sort of flexibility that I do love about this year’s pitching staff. In the mix is Jo-Jo Reyes, off a disappointing rookie year, Jeff Bennett, winner of this year’s “I Pitched 5 Dominant Innings In A Spot Start So I Automatically Get To Be Mentioned In The Rotation Battle Like Oscar Villarreal Award”, Buddy Carlyle, and Cox favorite Charlie Morton.  Being a Cox favorite doesn’t mean much, though – I guess Morton can start a bowling team with Trey Hodges, Anthony Lerew, Chris Brock, and Travis Smith.  In all seriousness, though, at least Cox has finally targeted a real prospect with his affection.  Morton seems like a real future asset.

 The 2008 bullpen will be unheralded but solid.  Closing is Rafael Soriano, who has dominant stuff and should be very solid in the role, as long as he can put last summer’s home run struggles behind him.  Considering that despite those struggles, he still ranked as one of the NL East’s best relief pitchers last year, he should be very valuable, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Soriano become the NL’s best closer in 2008.  Setting him up will be Peter Moylan who, according to the Win Probability Added stat available at FanGraphs (a wonderful tool/toy), was the most valuable reliever in the division in 2007.  Moylan sets batters up with a mid 90’s sinker and devastates them with a slow, sweeping slider.  Due to his side-arm delivery, it creates an unfavorable effect from the hitter’s perspective.  It’s no surprise that right handed hitters were helpless against Moylan, batting .183/.244/.290.  Atlanta is looking forward to a mid-season bullpen boost when Mike Gonzalez is slated to return in June.  Until then, the lefty duties will go to either Will Ohman, a talented youngster who posted a 4.95 ERA in limited duty with the Cubs last year, or Royce Ring, acquired at the trading deadline last year.  Also available is Jeff Ridgway, picked up from Tampa Bay this offseason.  All three are adept at getting out lefties, and it’s likely that’s all they’ll be asked to do.  The final spots will be duked out in spring training and most likely will be some combination of Chris Resop, Manny Acosta, Jeff Bennett, and Blaine Boyer.  There is great uncertainty with such an unproven pen, but also great potential.  The bullpen most certainly holds the key to Atlanta’s season, because the unknown is such a major factor here.

 All in all, Atlanta should be improved from 2007’s 84-78 record, but the roster adjustments were slight, so don’t expect a huge improvement.  Still, there’s some room for optimism.  Last year’s team probably underachieved a little bit, and was good enough to have won close to 88 games.  If Atlanta improves by a few wins thanks to upgrades here and there, 90 wins isn’t out of the question.  I’m a loyal fan, but I’m also a realistic fan, and I know the Mets are improved and hungry.  Guess what?  That’s fine.  Atlanta is my favorite to take home the NL Wild Card in 2008, and that’ll make this Braves fan very happy.  After all, the last 6 World Series have all featured at least one Wild Card team, and to me, that goal is much, much bigger than simply beating the Mets.

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

   No. No one ever suggested it, and despite coming close in 2003 to earning that nod, Lopez was never really seen as numero uno.
   
   

2. Was he the best player on his team?

   No. In Atlanta, he was generally overshadowed by better offensive players or elite pitchers. In Baltimore, he was still pretty good, but Miguel Tejada was the best player in town.
   
   

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

   In 2003, Lopez was the best catcher in baseball. In 2004, Lopez was better than anything the NL had to offer. For the rest of his career, he was usually among the best in the game, but always trailed Mike Piazza.
   
   

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

   Yes. Lopez played in 7 Division Series, 6 Championship Series, and 2 World Series. In 1996, he batted .542/.607/1.000 with 5 doubles, 2 HR, and 6 RBI against St. Louis to win NLCS MVP honors. Lopez hit 10 postseason HR over the course of his career, likely none bigger than his 6^th inning, tie-breaking two run shot in Game Two of the 1995 World Series.
   
   

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

   That depends on the nature of the question. Lopez could’ve kept playing, but injuries sapped him of his strength and thus his offensive value. So, the answer is no, but with some qualification.
   
   

6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

   No. I give that nod to Pete Rose and then Bert Blyleven.
   
   

7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

   Roy Campanella is in the HOF, and his numbers are similar. During his prime, he had a career similar to HOF player Gabby Hartnett and HOFer Carlton Fisk.
   
   

8. Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

   Not really, but he did have a better peak than Roger Bresnahan, Rick Ferrell, or Ernie Lombardi – all three of whom are in the Hall. So, while Lopez doesn’t really stack up against some of the best HOFers, he wouldn’t likely be in the bottom 3.
   
   

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

   No. Lopez never played in extreme ballparks, and injuries didn’t cut into his stats enough to make a big deal about them.
   
   

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?

    No. Deacon White and Joe Torre are more deserving as catchers. Besides, Lopez isn’t eligible.
    
    

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

    As good as Javy’s 2003 season was, I don’t think it was an MVP caliber year, simply because at that point his defense had eroded so badly he was a liability behind the plate despite being a star at it. He never won an MVP but did come close in ’03, finishing 5^th. He also received MVP votes in 1998.
    
    

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?

    I think Lopez had 3 solid All-Star seasons: 1998, 2003, and 2004. Lopez played in the 1997, 1998, and 2003 AS games. Many players have appeared in 3 AS games, and most do not go to the Hall.
    
    

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

    No. Lopez was a great cog in a fantastic Atlanta dynasty, but was never relied on to be the top producer in the lineup.
    
    

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

    In 2003, Lopez did set the MLB record for HR by a catcher with 43. Also, he hit .287/.337/.491 with 260 HR in his career, and that’s not bad. He batted .300 4 times. He slugged .500 5 times. As a catcher, those are impressive totals.
    
    

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

    Yes. Lopez was never involved in any off-the-field troubles, as far as I know.

With that said, does Javy Lopez look like a Hall of Famer? No. Sure, he outdistances a few, but there are many more deserving catchers that missed the cut, and for some reason, the voters are much tougher on catchers than other positions. Lopez likely won’t get in the Hall despite a very solid career, but he almost certainly will be remembered for his record-setting 2003 season, an out-with-a-bang finish to a decade spent making himself into the best catcher in Braves history.

For that, Javy, we thank you. Wear that ring with pride, because you certainly earned it, and look forward to the new part of your career – working with the organization as either a coach or a scout.

2008: The ’08 salary rundown is as follows for projected starters and any other significant earners:

C – Brian McCann – $800,000
1B – Mark Teixeira – $12,500,000
2B – Kelly Johnson – near-minimum
3B – Chipper Jones – $11,000,000
SS – Yunel Escobar – near-minimum
LF – Matt Diaz – $1,225,000
CF – Mark Kotsay – < $3,000,000
RF – Jeff Francoeur – roughly $450,000

BN – Omar Infante – $1,400,000

SP1 – John Smoltz – $14,000,000
SP2 – Tim Hudson – $13,000,000
SP3 – Tom Glavine – $8,000,000
SP4 – Mike Hampton – $15,000,000
SP5 – Chuck James – near-minimum

CP – Rafael Soriano – $2,400,000
RP – Mike Gonzalez – $2,362,500
RP – Will Ohman – $1,600,000
RP – Tyler Yates – $800,000

That gives us a total of roughtly $88.7 million that is being devoted to current arbitration eligible players and the three other key starters earning the minimum. There are a few more things to take into account, though. First, Atlanta is paying Detroit a portion of Edgar Renteria’s salary. Second, there are a negligible amount of other players who will find their way onto the roster this year, driving up the overall payroll at times. Third, Atlanta has been putting money into an account for years to help lessen the blow of the final years of the Mike Hampton contract, so it’s likely that gave Atlanta as much as $7,000,000 of relief this year. All in all, I think this all balances out and we can set our team budget at roughly $88 million for non-minimum earners. This is important for giving us a context with which to view the future payroll. There’s always the chance Liberty Media could cut or expand, but that’s fairly unpredictable, so there’s no point in trying to account for that. With all this in mind, here are the changes for 2009 and beyond.

2009: Mike Hampton’s $15,000,000 comes off the books, along with Mark Teixeira’s $12,500,000 and Tom Glavine’s $8,000,000. Those three alone represent $35,500,000 of 2008 salary that won’t be around for 2009. Add in the expiring deals and near free agency of Mark Kotsay and Will Ohman, and there’s another $4,600,000, bringing the total to roughly $40,000,000. Of course, before we can start looking at free agent possibilities, we have to make sure we cover the future costs of other players. If John Smoltz pitches 200 innings this year, his 2009 option vests for $12,000,000, which actually adds $2 million to the “free money” total and brings it to $42,000,000. Chipper Jones’ vesting option will most likely kick in, and while the specifics are undisclosed, he will not be receiving any more money and might actually save us another $3 million, though that’s unlikely. Rafael Soriano gets a $3.7 million raise, so that brings our free money total down to $38,300,000. Mike Gonzalez will be in his final year of arbitration, and he should see a raise of about $1,500,000 or so, bringing us down to $36,800,000. Omar Infante enters his final year of arbitration and will probably get a half million raise, which knocks us down to $36,300,000. Matt Diaz started arbitration early this year under baseball’s Super Two rule and will probably receive a nice pay raise if his ’08 season is like his previous years. I think $4,000,000 is reasonable, which is a $2,775,000 raise. That brings us down to $33,525,000. Brian McCann gets a $300,000 raise, so that brings us down to $33,225,000. Tyler Yates will get a small raise in arbitration if he’s still here, so let’s just knock that down to $33,000,000. Next, there’s the issue of players like Jeff Francoeur, Chuck James, and Kelly Johnson entering arbitration next offseason. Initially, it won’t be a major problem. First years of arbitration usually don’t yield much salary, but 2^nd and 3^rd years often do. If we estimate James at $1,000,000, Johnson at $2,500,000, and Francoeur at $3,500,000, that brings us back to about $26,000,000 in free usable free agent money.

Why does everyone care? Almost universally among Braves fans, all money worries are focused around re-signing Mark Teixeira, and we can see that with $26,000,000 to spend, Atlanta can definitely re-sign him. However, there will be up to two rotation spots, a bullpen spot, and the CF spot to fill as well as 1B. Atlanta will probably hand CF to Jordan Schafer and turn over the bullpen spot(s) to more cost-effective players. Jair Jurrjens seems like a future fit for the rotation, but after that, will Atlanta be able to trust another young player with the job? If the team makes a play for Teixeira, it seems as if they will most likely have to invest in stop-gap pitching solutions or let young pitchers step up. It’s a big risk to take, especially in the final few years of Smoltz & Chipper this team will be afforded. But what choice does Atlanta really have other than going hard after Teixeira? Let Tyler Flowers take over? Sure, but where will you spend the money instead? C.C. Sabathia? Ben Sheets? Jon Garland? These are all fine pitchers, but they’re also all likely to demand a hefty long-term deal. You know the deal. It’s the same one Atlanta’s trying to get out of with Mike Hampton. It’s smarter to spend on something reliable, and Mark Teixeira’s production will be pretty reliable over time.

Beyond 2009, there is little money owed to Atlanta veterans. John Smoltz has a club option for 2010 if his ’09 option vests. Tim Hudson & the Braves have a mutual option. Brian McCann is the only player guaranteed money in 2010. This means Atlanta should have a full youth movement in place by ’10, maybe one or two veterans still around but mostly low-cost arbitration years contracts to build the team around. At this point, I think the team will have become something we wouldn’t have recognized 15 years ago: a team that utilizes but does not rely on free agent talent, instead stocking the bulk of the team with simultaneously homegrown low-cost players.

2008 should be exciting for Braves fans, but so should the coming years. As you can see, there are many changes on the way, and no one really knows what to expect. While it’s a safe bet to think McCann, Johnson, and Francoeur (and to a lesser degree, Yunel Escobar) will be in the starting lineup in 2 years, there’s no one else that is a great bet to remain a fixture. Uncertainty is exciting, and the payroll situation, beginning with Mark Teixeira this fall, is as big a factor in the uncertainty as anything else. When you start thinking about possible moves Frank Wren could make, just remember to follow the money, because that salary budget is the context within which all Atlanta’s personnel decisions are made.

Still, he does have obvious problems. He doesn’t take many pitches, he strikes out entirely too often, and his 71% contact rate (compared to the league norm of 80%) is miserable. However, there’s reason to believe his batting average will rise in the near future, and all he really needs to boost his confidence are a few more singles here and there. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that, in a specific role, he could even bat between .275 and .300. Seriously, that’s how random BABIP can be, and that’s how much of an effect it can take on your batting average. Considering this, there’s reason to believe Thorman could be attractive to some team that wants to put him in the proper role. What role is that? Well, let’s look at his slugging percentage. .452 vs. righties, and .276 against lefties. There’s a clear disparity, but slugging percentage doesn’t tell the whole story of power potential – Ichiro Suzuki slugged .431 last year, and we know he doesn’t actually include much “slugging” in his game. Let’s instead look at Isolated Power, which is simply Slugging Average minus Batting Average, which removes the effect of singles. Against righties, Thorman’s ISO is .217, which indicates he generates plenty of power. Against lefties, it’s .095, which isn’t impressive for a first baseman. Clearly, Thorman belongs in a 1B or DH platoon where he faces right handed pitching and right handed pitching only. So, who should be interested, why would they be, and what could we get?

New York Yankees
WHY? Shelley Duncan’s performance begs so badly for a platoon partner it isn’t even funny. Duncan crushed southpaws last year, but the Yankees need better performance against right-handers, and they have no one to deliver that. Duncan might be nearly as good as Thorman against righties, but it’s a big chance to take if you’re trying to win the division.
IN RETURN? Possibly Jose Veras, a long reliever with decent strikeout ability and some control problems, or Jeff Karstens, a former starter who is bound for the bullpen at some point and isn’t really ready, though he still has talent.

Seattle Mariners
WHY? Because against right-handers, Thorman, even with last year’s stats, is an upgrade over Richie Sexson at 1B. Also, because this team needs some punch at DH when Jose Vidro inevitably declines.
IN RETURN? Sean White, a groundball machine who keeps the ball in the park, but otherwise has some control issues. Jon Huber and Cesar Jiminez are possibilities as well.

St. Louis Cardinals
WHY? The Cardinals have no better backup for Albert Pujols (I was unaware that Josh Phelps was still even playing baseball). Also, they have virtually no left handed pop off the bench. As a pinch hitter, he’d be a nice complement to Ryan Ludwick.
IN RETURN? Josh Kinney, a groundball pitcher who will issue too many free passes; Brad Thompson, a groundball pitcher who doesn’t strike anyone out; Kelvin Jiminez, another somewhat capable reliever who probably doesn’t have a place in STL’s pen this year.

Houston Astros
WHY? The Astros have Geoff Blum as their primary bench option against right-handers, and Geoff Blum has no power.
IN RETURN? Possibly Chris Sampson, who does everything well except missing bats.

San Francisco Giants
WHY? Dan Ortmeier.
IN RETURN? Possibly Brad Hennessey, who could be moved to instill confidence in Brian Wilson; Scott Atchison, who does several things well but nothing wonderfully.

Of course, there’s always the chance Atlanta trades Thorman for some marginal prospect in the minors, but that could be literally anyone from these organizations. My selections were mostly based on what realistic return Atlanta could get that would benefit the team in 2008.

Amateur Career: In his first year on Florida State’s campus, Matt Diaz made an immediate impact. In 1998, Diaz was named NCAA Freshman of the Year and was a 3^rd Team All-American, batting .390/.440/.714 with 22 HR in only 269 AB, helping FSU reach the College World Series. As a sophomore, the offensive assault continued to the pace of .379/.440/.688 with 21 HR, and Diaz led FSU to Omaha yet again, this time all the way to the championship game. Diaz was named to College World Series’ All Tournament Team, on top of his 1^st Team All-America regular season selection.

Diaz was drafted by Tampa Bay in the 17^th round of the 1999 draft, which, given his college stardom, seems pretty low. However, as a sophomore, he had some leverage and wasn’t considered really toolsy. Matt Diaz, of course, is one of those players the old scouts utterly despise – he doesn’t have a baseball body, and his swing is unorthodox and not ideal (according to scouts). He signed with the Devil Rays and immediately began his pro career.

1999 – A- Hudson Valley Renegades – .245/.284/.351 with 15 2B & 1 HR in 54 games.
2000 – A+ St. Petersburg Devil Rays – .270/.305/.385 with 21 2B & 6 HR in 106 games.

Most college players start out at low A ball, and this is where Diaz began his career. His naysayers probably tossed told-you-so’s around without caution that summer. Still, while it’s ok to get excited over solid performance in a player’s first year, it’s also not really necessary to worry over a poor performance. Diaz’ performance really wasn’t that bad, considering Dutchess Stadium (The Dutch) is one of the minors’ most unforgiving hitting environments. Also, it’s not unusual for pitchers to dominate lower levels, so Diaz’ line, while not exactly stellar, was enough to earn him a promotion in the offseason.
Diaz played his first full season in A+ ball in the final season of minor league baseball at Al Lang Field in St. Pete. Thanks to Clay Davenport, I found the park factor for St. Petersburg in 2000, which was .983. All this means is that for every run scored in a neutral atmosphere, .983 runs were scored at St. Petersburg. Al Lang Field always favored pitchers, so Diaz was dealing with yet another tough hitting environment. At this point in his career, he still wasn’t seen as much of a prospect by his team, but he at least hit well enough to keep the team interested in his development.

2001 – A+ Bakersfield Blaze – .328/.370/.510 with 40 2B & 17 HR in 131 games.

Diaz’ big breakout season was indeed impressive, however it must be pointed out that Diaz was 23 years old, which is a bit old for the level. All things considered, it was his second year in high A ball, so excitement over that impressive line had to be tempered a bit. However, there was also reason for real optimism. Bakersfield’s home park has favored pitchers considerably over the years; now that line of .328/.370/.510 looks even better. Clearly, it was a successful but unrevealing season for Diaz not only with the bat, but in the field – while he certainly impressed with 17 outfield assists, his 10 errors were disappointing. The jump to AA is considered the key minor league jump, so much of Diaz’ future remained, at this point, a mystery.

2002 – AA Orlando Rays – .274/.337/.408 with 28 2B & 10 HR in 122 games.

Diaz didn’t exactly excel in his first upper minors stop, but the 24 year old also didn’t disappoint. Orlando is a pretty neutral park, so his numbers weren’t too high or low. Surprisingly, and seemingly out of nowhere, Diaz stole 31 bases, 12 more than his entire career total to date. A pretty solid debut for AA, I think.

2003 – AA Orlando Rays – .383/.444/.542 with 21 2B & 5 HR in 60 games
- AAA Durham Bulls – .328/.382/.518 with 18 2B & 8 HR in 67 games

Holy smokes. While I was already surprised to see Diaz wasn’t promoted to AAA after his fairly solid 2002 season, Diaz clearly showed the organization that he was too dominant for AA. Remember that Orlando played pretty neutrally, so this isn’t like hitting .383 in Denver; for a frame of reference, it’s like doing it in Atlanta. He continued to shine in AAA, and although his slugging percentage dropped (because the BA dropped and for no other reason), he actually improved his power output in Durham. Granted, it’s hard not to improve your power in Durham, which favors hitters, but it was nice to see Diaz take advantage. A phenomenal year from a continuously doubted prospect, all in all.

2004 – AAA Durham Bulls – .332/.377/.571 with 47 2B, 5 3B, and 21 HR in 134 games

This is why Tampa Bay remained in the AL East cellar for so long. In 2004, a year after Diaz had scorched the two highest minor league levels, Diaz returned to AAA while Jose Cruz and Robert Fick dominated RF/DH and wasted at-bats on an everyday basis. Fick batted .201/.273/.327 for the major league club and wound up with the lion’s share of plate appearances at DH. Say what? Meanwhile Diaz took full advantage of Durham’s friendly confines, putting up yet another season of strong numbers, and earning his 3^rd Minor League All-Star appearance in a 4 year span. Yes, he was a bit old for his competition, but just because Diaz bloomed late, does it negate the fact that he did actually bloom? Partially, yes. Completely? Not at all.

2005 – AAA Omaha Royals – .371/.408/.649 with 22 2B & 14 HR in 65 games

Tampa Bay figured the only way they could top the previous year’s fiasco of favoring Rob Fick was by cutting Diaz altogether. Presumably out of options, Matt Diaz wasn’t good enough to make a roster that went 65-97, and a team that started Damon Hollins in CF for most of the season and gave considerable 3B playing time to Alex Gonzalez. I know what you’re thinking – “Oh, the bad Alex Gonzalez?” Nope, the terrible Alex Gonzalez, as in the Alex Gonzalez who still thanks God every night for Steve Bartman taking attention away from his complete and utter terrible-ness that so terribly ruined the Cubs’ 2003 playoff hopes. Yeah, that’s the one. Almost ironically, Diaz was picked up by baseball’s other black-eye organization, Kansas City. He was sent for his third season of AAA seasoning because, I kid you not, Kansas City thought it’d be fun to turn Diaz into a catcher. Also, there apparently just wasn’t room for him on the major league roster, a roster so finely constructed the Royals lost 106 games. After all, could we honestly expect Matt Diaz to unseat the mighty Terrence Long, who batted .279/.321/.378 as KC’s primary LF? Clearly not. The scary thing is that Omaha is a pretty solid pitcher’s park, and Diaz posted a 4-digit OPS. He did get 89 mostly meaningless at-bats with the big league club, during which he outhit the legendary Terrence Long to the tune of .281/.323/.404, but the Royals remained inexplicably unimpressed.

2006 – Atlanta Braves – .327/.364/.475 with 15 2B & 7 HR in 297 AB

How many times did we see John Schuerholz do this? He found a guy that some of the worst teams in baseball were unwilling to play and gave him a shot. Diaz answered, and even if he was mostly utilized against lefties, he still performed like a star. Kansas City gave him up for minor leaguer Ricardo Rodriguez, who predictably hasn’t amounted to much. 28 is better than never, and after a much too long minor league career, Diaz had finally established himself as a legitimate major league roster spot-holder, even if some still doubted his ability to keep the lightning in the bottle.

2007 – Atlanta Braves – .338/.368/.497 with 21 2B & 12 HR in 358 AB

Diaz shedded the “Vs. Lefties Only” label, excelling against every type of pitcher he faced in ’07, even if Bobby Cox didn’t take full notice. It’s likely he’ll always have managers thinking he needs to platoon, mainly because of his batting stance, which does seem like it would have a hole against righties. No matter how things look, Diaz produces at all times. Another phenomenal year from the hitter no doubt shocked the Royals and Devil Rays organizations.
I’ve spent a lot of words praising Diaz, but let’s be brutally honest. His value as a hitter is mostly tied into his batting average, and anyone who has studied BA will tell you that it is a fickle statistic, rewarding one year and ruthless the next. He’s an unusual player in that he has a below average contact rate (roughly 76% to the league’s 80%) and a really high batting average. Also, he strikes out a good bit (there’s that contact rate again) but doesn’t hit many home runs. These are no doubt some of the flaws that prolonged his minor league career. However, they’re perceived flaws, and if one can get around them, they can be rendered meaningless. That, apparently, is what Diaz has done. After all, he hasn’t just hit for high average at the major league level; he’s done it at nearly every level of the minor leagues as well as college. In order to achieve this, Diaz relies heavily on having a high batting average on balls put into play (BA which doesn’t count HR or K’s), and while the league’s average is around .290 or so, Diaz has posted .373 and .385 in that statistic the past two seasons. He maintains that high BA on balls in play by being able to hit all pitches and thanks to his unorthodox swing which produces a high amount of line drives.

Diaz doesn’t seem to struggle with any specific pitches. He can hit pretty much anything you throw him, especially change-ups. He batted .485 on change-ups, and if pitchers continue to throw it to him in 2008, they’re fools. If anything, throw him the slider, but even then, he batted .269, so it’s no sure out. Put simply, Diaz can hit anything, especially fastball-changeup combinations.

I think Diaz’ success boils down to a swing that will never produce many home runs, but will always produce enough line drives to make him a dangerous singles and doubles hitter. Yes, he should hit between 8 and 15 home runs in most seasons, but his value really lies in his ability to not simply put the ball in play, but put the ball into play in a way that is favorable to the team. That comes from all those line drives. Because of that, but also considering that Diaz will be facing a few more pitchers in 2008, I expect him to put together a season in the vicinity of .315/.360/.500.

Defensively, he’s rarely given the credit he deserves. According to John Dewan’s plus/minus system, which is based on video footage of every ball put into play in every single game and comparing the players based on that video, Diaz ranked 5^th among all left fielders last year in defensive excellence. That’s impressive, and while many concentrate on his mediocre speed, he more than makes up for it by taking the correct routes and positioning himself correctly.

Matt Diaz should continue to be a valuable major league role player and a viable full-time starter. I think he’ll continue to post a batting average near or above .300 year after year as long as that line drive rate stays in the 20% range. Ironically, the player he reminds me of the most is the very manager who wouldn’t give him the spot he deserved back in 2004 – Lou Piniella, a career .291 hitter without a lot of power but enough production to always force his way into the lineup, and that seems to be the way to best describe Matt Diaz. He’ll never be the best player on the team, but he’s precisely the type of player you just can’t keep out of the lineup.