Braves Report

It’s hard for me to come up with the words to write this blog post, mainly because I don’t think its sunk in yet. I first heard the news as soon as I woke up this morning, and to me, it seemed unreal. Skip Caray, one of the main announcers and a name that is synonymous with the Braves, passed away last night in his sleep at the age of 68.

Now, I haven’t followed Skip throughout his entire 32-year career with the Braves, mainly because I really only started watching the team in 1997. But since then, through every single of his broadcasts on TBS, I felt like he gave me something. He gave me the unique feeling of the Braves. His voice is ingrained in my head with most of the fond memories I have. He was honest, but also had a sense of humor that truly made the games more enjoyable. Listening to him was always a treat, and he did his job just about as well as anyone can do it.

More importantly, this was a guy who I grew up with. I’m sure most of you can say the same, that Skip did indeed have an impact on your youth. But now, knowing that I’m no longer going to hear his remarks, or listen to him say something that would undoubtedly put a smile on my face, the feelings are starting to sink in.

Rest in peace, Skip. Thanks for all the great memories. You will be missed.

[August 12, 1939 - August 3, 2008]

[Image: Yahoo! Sports]

Finally, we win one! It seems like it has been a week (6 days). I can’t get too excited over this, since the team has largely given up and is beginning to focus on next year. But, a win is a win, and I will take it.

Pitching was better than it has been the past few days. Hampton wasn’t great, but he wasn’t awful, either. It was his longest outing of the season (not hard) and he lowered his ERA. He went five innings, giving up seven hits and four runs. If he could have cut back on the walks, it would have helped. The pen helped tonight. Bennett pitched two solid innings, perfect innings, in fact. Soriano and Gonzo pitched the last two innings, neither game up a run.

The story of the night was the hitting. We pounded out seven runs on fifteen hits. Escobar had two hits, scored and drove one in. Kotsay did the same. Infante is on fire as of late. He had three hits tonight, two RBI and two runs scored. KJ joined the hit parade with two hits and two RBI. Sammons hits and three RBI in his second (?) game.

Brave salvage the series finale, 9 - 4.

Today’s game 7:35 PM. Not nationally televised.

Being the son of a scout has its advantages, like knowing how to play fundamental baseball and being fundamentally sound. Kotchman’s glove is just as good as Teixeira’s. He has a short, but sharp swing. He should be a high average hitter. He possesses power to the gaps which should mature into a 25+ home run thread. He has good plate discipline. His K:BB ratio has taken a turn for the worse after the Angels pressed him to be more aggressive at the plate this year. The main negative on Kotchman is his durability. He has a knack for fluke injuries. His ceiling is that of Todd Helton only with less power. He is under the Braves control through the 2011 season. That will allow the Braves to develop Freddie Freeman. Tomorrow I will examine Stephen Marek, the other player the Braves received in the trade.

The July 31st, trading deadline is rapidly approaching. With the Braves continuing to fall further and further back of the NL East leading Mets, the Braves will be sellers for the first time in a while. But what parts do the Braves have that they can sell and what can they get for those parts?

1) Mark Teixeira - Last year the Braves traded away a king’s ransom to get Teixeira from the Rangers. Unfortunately, the move hasn’t paid off like the Braves had envisioned it would. With Scott Boras as his agent, Teixeira will likely seek a 7 years deal at 20 million dollars per year, it seems unlikely the Braves will be able to re-sign him this off-season. So will other teams offer more at the deadline knowing it is likely that they will not be able to resign him than the Braves would get as compensation if they lose him via free agency? It appears the Braves will be able to get that. The teams in the running are the Angels, Diamondbacks, Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees. A deal appears to be imminent.

2) Will Ohman - Ohman is another player the Braves acquired in a trade in the last year. With contending teams always looking for dependable relievers, he is one of the premier left handed relievers on the trade market. Ohman is having his best season to date, currently possessing a 2.84 ERA with a WHIP of 1.128. Teams said to be interested in his services include the Cardinals, Rays, Tigers, and Yankees. Ohman is a free agent after the season and the Braves believe he will be a type B free agent which would net them a draft pick, so if there is not an offer the Braves like they will have no problem holding onto him and letting him walk.

3) Mark Kotsay - Yet another player acquired in a trade. Kotsay, like Teixeira and Ohman, will be a free agent after this season. But unlike Ohman and Teixeira, he will not likely bring the Braves any draft picks if he leaves. So it makes sense to deal him. Kotsay would be a nice addition for the stretch run for a team like the Rays.

It certainly will be interesting to see how the trade deadline unfolds this year for the Braves. Stay tuned to Braves-Report for its continuing coverage of the MLB Trade Deadline and the Atlanta Braves.

The Atlanta Braves are in a tough situation.  They’re 6 games under .500 and dealing with injuries across the board.  Several stars the team was depending on are underperforming and there’s no fire in this team’s belly.

But on the other hand, the Braves are only 6 games away from 1st place and only 8 games away from the Wild Card spot.  If they’ve managed to stay this close with such a trying and, at times, miserable first half of the season, the 2nd half can’t get much worse, can it?  So, in the last few weeks before the July 31 trading deadline, what should Atlanta do?

At 43-49, it’s easy to write this team off as an also-ran that will plummet in the season’s waning months.  However, that 43-49 doesn’t really tell the whole story.  A popular story that has been negatively spun all over Atlanta is the team’s record in one-run games.  Now, for all practical purposes, let me just tell you that the team’s record in one-run games is mostly meaningless.  In many of these games, the team was down by multiple runs only to score late in the game to bring it closer.  It doesn’t mean the team is poorly managed, unclutch, or whatever other attribute you can conjure up.  What you can take from the one-run game record is actually something positive, and when you think about it, it’s the mark of a team that is tough to beat:  when the Braves win, they win big, but when they lose, they barely lose.  When you’ve got a chance to win in nearly every game, that’s a good thing.  It’s not as psychological as the mainstream media would have you believe.  It really is some terrible luck. Throughout baseball history, looking at runs scored and runs allowed can, most of the time, accurately predict what a team’s record will be.  The Braves right now have an expected winning % of .538, which would put the team’s record at either 49-43 or 50-42.  What does this mean?  Even though the standings don’t reflect it, the team has played well enough to be in 1st place right now.

I know what you’re thinking; this is all well and good for imaginary baseball, but how does this knowledge help the team get to the playoffs in 2008?  Put simply, it lets the team know that natural improvement may be on the way.  This has happened in baseball before. In 2005, Houston, at the same point, was piddling around at 46-46.  They were 5 games out of a playoff spot.  However, their expected record was 48-46, and more importantly, one of the teams they trailed, the Washington Nationals at 54-40, had an expected record of only 46-48 at the time.  The Astros didn’t bail on their aging team, and they kept fighting.  From that point through the end of the season, the Astros were the NL’s best team, winning 42 of their final 69 games.  The Nationals, on the other hand, plummeted quickly finishing on a 27-41 run as the NL’s worst team.

Sometimes it doesn’t turn around.  The Diamondbacks eluded the cold hard facts last year and made the playoffs while giving up more runs than they scored.  But most of the time, it does balance out.  The Marlins are a team that’s a prime candidate to stumble badly.  The Brewers were headed for a similar fate, but they made the right trade at the right time to try to save themselves.

Am I saying the Braves will reach the playoffs?  No.  They probably won’t.  But that doesn’t mean they can’t, and much, much stranger things have happened in baseball.  The East is still a very winnable division, so now isn’t the time to start bailing on Atlanta’s chances.  Atlanta shouldn’t be a strong buyer this July, because the division is a bit of a long shot, but if there’s any way the team can improve while keeping its top prospects, the Braves should be looking for a trade.  Another arm to stabilize the bullpen, an innings eater in the rotation, or a left field bat would and should all interest the Braves, if the price is right.  At the All-Star break, I’ll get a little more specific on the Braves’ options in this trade market.  For now, I’m just hoping they ignore that ringing phone, because history points to a quick turnaround.