Braves Report

Being the son of a scout has its advantages, like knowing how to play fundamental baseball and being fundamentally sound. Kotchman’s glove is just as good as Teixeira’s. He has a short, but sharp swing. He should be a high average hitter. He possesses power to the gaps which should mature into a 25+ home run thread. He has good plate discipline. His K:BB ratio has taken a turn for the worse after the Angels pressed him to be more aggressive at the plate this year. The main negative on Kotchman is his durability. He has a knack for fluke injuries. His ceiling is that of Todd Helton only with less power. He is under the Braves control through the 2011 season. That will allow the Braves to develop Freddie Freeman. Tomorrow I will examine Stephen Marek, the other player the Braves received in the trade.

The July 31st, trading deadline is rapidly approaching. With the Braves continuing to fall further and further back of the NL East leading Mets, the Braves will be sellers for the first time in a while. But what parts do the Braves have that they can sell and what can they get for those parts?

1) Mark Teixeira - Last year the Braves traded away a king’s ransom to get Teixeira from the Rangers. Unfortunately, the move hasn’t paid off like the Braves had envisioned it would. With Scott Boras as his agent, Teixeira will likely seek a 7 years deal at 20 million dollars per year, it seems unlikely the Braves will be able to re-sign him this off-season. So will other teams offer more at the deadline knowing it is likely that they will not be able to resign him than the Braves would get as compensation if they lose him via free agency? It appears the Braves will be able to get that. The teams in the running are the Angels, Diamondbacks, Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees. A deal appears to be imminent.

2) Will Ohman - Ohman is another player the Braves acquired in a trade in the last year. With contending teams always looking for dependable relievers, he is one of the premier left handed relievers on the trade market. Ohman is having his best season to date, currently possessing a 2.84 ERA with a WHIP of 1.128. Teams said to be interested in his services include the Cardinals, Rays, Tigers, and Yankees. Ohman is a free agent after the season and the Braves believe he will be a type B free agent which would net them a draft pick, so if there is not an offer the Braves like they will have no problem holding onto him and letting him walk.

3) Mark Kotsay - Yet another player acquired in a trade. Kotsay, like Teixeira and Ohman, will be a free agent after this season. But unlike Ohman and Teixeira, he will not likely bring the Braves any draft picks if he leaves. So it makes sense to deal him. Kotsay would be a nice addition for the stretch run for a team like the Rays.

It certainly will be interesting to see how the trade deadline unfolds this year for the Braves. Stay tuned to Braves-Report for its continuing coverage of the MLB Trade Deadline and the Atlanta Braves.

The Atlanta Braves are in a tough situation.  They’re 6 games under .500 and dealing with injuries across the board.  Several stars the team was depending on are underperforming and there’s no fire in this team’s belly.

But on the other hand, the Braves are only 6 games away from 1st place and only 8 games away from the Wild Card spot.  If they’ve managed to stay this close with such a trying and, at times, miserable first half of the season, the 2nd half can’t get much worse, can it?  So, in the last few weeks before the July 31 trading deadline, what should Atlanta do?

At 43-49, it’s easy to write this team off as an also-ran that will plummet in the season’s waning months.  However, that 43-49 doesn’t really tell the whole story.  A popular story that has been negatively spun all over Atlanta is the team’s record in one-run games.  Now, for all practical purposes, let me just tell you that the team’s record in one-run games is mostly meaningless.  In many of these games, the team was down by multiple runs only to score late in the game to bring it closer.  It doesn’t mean the team is poorly managed, unclutch, or whatever other attribute you can conjure up.  What you can take from the one-run game record is actually something positive, and when you think about it, it’s the mark of a team that is tough to beat:  when the Braves win, they win big, but when they lose, they barely lose.  When you’ve got a chance to win in nearly every game, that’s a good thing.  It’s not as psychological as the mainstream media would have you believe.  It really is some terrible luck. Throughout baseball history, looking at runs scored and runs allowed can, most of the time, accurately predict what a team’s record will be.  The Braves right now have an expected winning % of .538, which would put the team’s record at either 49-43 or 50-42.  What does this mean?  Even though the standings don’t reflect it, the team has played well enough to be in 1st place right now.

I know what you’re thinking; this is all well and good for imaginary baseball, but how does this knowledge help the team get to the playoffs in 2008?  Put simply, it lets the team know that natural improvement may be on the way.  This has happened in baseball before. In 2005, Houston, at the same point, was piddling around at 46-46.  They were 5 games out of a playoff spot.  However, their expected record was 48-46, and more importantly, one of the teams they trailed, the Washington Nationals at 54-40, had an expected record of only 46-48 at the time.  The Astros didn’t bail on their aging team, and they kept fighting.  From that point through the end of the season, the Astros were the NL’s best team, winning 42 of their final 69 games.  The Nationals, on the other hand, plummeted quickly finishing on a 27-41 run as the NL’s worst team.

Sometimes it doesn’t turn around.  The Diamondbacks eluded the cold hard facts last year and made the playoffs while giving up more runs than they scored.  But most of the time, it does balance out.  The Marlins are a team that’s a prime candidate to stumble badly.  The Brewers were headed for a similar fate, but they made the right trade at the right time to try to save themselves.

Am I saying the Braves will reach the playoffs?  No.  They probably won’t.  But that doesn’t mean they can’t, and much, much stranger things have happened in baseball.  The East is still a very winnable division, so now isn’t the time to start bailing on Atlanta’s chances.  Atlanta shouldn’t be a strong buyer this July, because the division is a bit of a long shot, but if there’s any way the team can improve while keeping its top prospects, the Braves should be looking for a trade.  Another arm to stabilize the bullpen, an innings eater in the rotation, or a left field bat would and should all interest the Braves, if the price is right.  At the All-Star break, I’ll get a little more specific on the Braves’ options in this trade market.  For now, I’m just hoping they ignore that ringing phone, because history points to a quick turnaround.

We’re almost halfway through the season, and we’re piddling around .500 with just 38 wins. We’ve had good stretches and bad stretches, but it’s sent us to no destination good or bad, just to .500 and sort of an afterthought in the race. The team has been inconsistent, at times looking like there’s real potential lying underneath, and looking like a AAA team at others. It’s time to give up on the Braves for the year, and I’m about to tell you why.

Players don’t make the playoffs; teams make the playoffs. Right now, Atlanta is being carried by its third baseman. When your 3B is not just your MVP but the guy who is single handedly keeping you in the race, you’re going to find yourself in trouble down the road.

Why can’t we develop a young power hitter with some selectivity at the plate? Instead, the kid with worlds of talent just winds up swinging at too many bad pitches and just concentrates on hitting homers. It’s frustrating to watch a potential MVP out there hacking like that, making enough contact to stay in the lineup but not enough to really make himself the great player he’s capable of becoming.

The bullpen still hasn’t really come together. Our primary lefty for the year has been very good, and our long reliever/spot starter has been a great go-to guy, but what else is there? Our closer was fine until he got hurt. The guy we thought would be our primary set-up man wound up unable to contribute like we’d hoped. Our main righty out of the pen has been solid overall, but he’s blown some big games. We’ve got an inexperienced flamethrower with plenty of potential, but a lack of true command.

The rotation right now has only one veteran, and he’s played well. We’ve also seen a pretty solid young pitcher really turn the corner and become a starter we can rely on. We’ve got a young lefty in the rotation that has an ERA hovering around 4.00, and while you’d like to think he could improve and be a big pitcher for us in the postseason, you can’t help but remember the horrible season he had as a rookie the year before. Elsewhere in the rotation, we’ve got a very promising youngster who has been plagued with wild inconsistency throughout his minor league and major league career. The 24 year old righty has a ton of potential, but will he ever be able to be the pitcher to match his pure stuff?

More than just the internal team problems are the problems within the division. We’re looking up at a team in 1^st place with two of the best sluggers in baseball. Their rotation features one of the best pitchers in the game under the age of 25, and a nice mix of veterans and pitchers still in their prime. To make matters worse, we’re not even their biggest worry right now because we’re not even the team sitting in second place.

Let’s face it, folks. This isn’t happening. This just isn’t gonna be our year.

- July 4, 1991

It’s not all your fault. Unlike the flabbergasted Bill Bavasi in Seattle, you actually built a pretty good team this offseason. Many pieces were in place, but you had to know that while strong, the team was built on a shaky, 40 year old foundation. Surely you have a backup plan in place, right? If so, I think now’s the time to enact said plan.

Something has to be done. The team is playing pitifully. Do you know how many runs the average team scores with the bases loaded and no one out? 2.15 runs. That’s average. That means some teams have scored 4 or even 5 runs in innings like that, probably balancing out the hapless Braves. Now, am I saying this team is incapable of scoring those 2.15 runs that the average team could score in that situation? Not at all. Am I saying they wouldn’t score them tomorrow if the same situation came up? Not at all. I’m simply saying they didn’t score them today, and it seems in line with everything else that’s been happening with this team lately. To Atlanta, tied means losing. When tied entering the 7^th, Atlanta is 2-6. When tied entering the 8^th, we’re 4-7. When tied entering the 9^th, we’re 2-6. In extra innings, we’re now 1-7. This can’t stand.

I’m a pretty analytical guy. You won’t see me writing about how a team needs more heart, more fire, or more grittiness. I don’t believe anyone can will their team to victory and I don’t think team chemistry is real important. But right now, it seems that this team is suffering from more psychological issues than any other team in the game. They just don’t have any confidence, and while I don’t think confidence alone wins games, I do think it’s a requisite for being able to properly execute the things that do win games. Bobby Cox can pep talk them all day and night, but Bobby Cox’ pep talks won’t help ease the stress of making up for John Smoltz’ shoulder, Tom Glavine’s elbow, or Jair Jurrjens’ ankle. Things are falling apart pretty quickly, and this team needs help right now, not on July 31.

It takes a big man to admit he’s wrong, which probably explains why most general managers either blame the players or manager (see: Bavasi) or simply proclaim they’re astounded when things don’t go the way they planned. That’s why most are too stubborn to make the necessary changes until the trade deadline, at zero hour. For Atlanta’s season, zero hour is nearing. Not only is the wild card easily in sight, this division is still very winnable. Now isn’t the time to sit idly by while things slip from our grasp.

They need some help, and by help, I don’t mean another call-up from Richmond, I don’t mean a waiver pick-up from Seattle. This team needs something important, a move to rally around that will lift a little of the load off their shoulders. This team needs a veteran starting pitcher and a veteran bat. There are two teams equipped with both, have no shot of competing this year, and should be looking to deal.

Seattle is 24-42, already a ridiculous 16 ½ games out of first. They’re already looking to 2009. However, there are some gems to be found. Raul Ibanez is a relatively cheap veteran hitter who could really boost the plate discipline and performance of the offense. If we’re willing to take on Jarrod Washburn’s contract for next year, I bet a pair of mid-level prospects could get the deal done. We could retain our top prospects and land some players who could really help the team and soon. Washburn has a scary 6.00 ERA, but that ERA is misleading as he’s mismatched in Seattle and could flourish in Atlanta. Here’s a guy who really isn’t pitching any fundamentally different than he did last year, but he’s suffering due to Seattle’s horrendous defense. Atlanta, conversely, has one of the best defenses in the majors. Washburn isn’t an ace, but he still has his command, can let the defense make plays, and could thrive with a change of scenery.

San Diego is 29-38, in 4^th place, and falling out of the race. While Greg Maddux is a tempting reunion, complete with all the warm fuzzies that come along with having the big three on the same roster, the Padres should be willing to unload Randy Wolf, and right now he’s a better pitcher. He’s cheaper and is a free agent at year’s end. Brian Giles is the sort of impact veteran bat that could really save this team. He’s as patient and smart a hitter as Chipper or Tex. He isn’t going to hit many home runs, but he will help the offense by constantly being on base. Make the other pitcher throw more pitches, get to the middle relievers. That’s how this team can get its confidence back. Start winning 1 run games rather than losing them.

Whether it’s Washburn, Wolf, Maddux, Giles, Ibanez, or someone else, this team needs an influx of not only talent but confidence. This teams needs something, and it isn’t a pep talk from Bobby Cox. My only hope is that we don’t have to wait until July 31 to get the help we need. You give a man medicine when he’s sick, not when he’s dead.