Braves Report

It’s not all your fault. Unlike the flabbergasted Bill Bavasi in Seattle, you actually built a pretty good team this offseason. Many pieces were in place, but you had to know that while strong, the team was built on a shaky, 40 year old foundation. Surely you have a backup plan in place, right? If so, I think now’s the time to enact said plan.

Something has to be done. The team is playing pitifully. Do you know how many runs the average team scores with the bases loaded and no one out? 2.15 runs. That’s average. That means some teams have scored 4 or even 5 runs in innings like that, probably balancing out the hapless Braves. Now, am I saying this team is incapable of scoring those 2.15 runs that the average team could score in that situation? Not at all. Am I saying they wouldn’t score them tomorrow if the same situation came up? Not at all. I’m simply saying they didn’t score them today, and it seems in line with everything else that’s been happening with this team lately. To Atlanta, tied means losing. When tied entering the 7^th, Atlanta is 2-6. When tied entering the 8^th, we’re 4-7. When tied entering the 9^th, we’re 2-6. In extra innings, we’re now 1-7. This can’t stand.

I’m a pretty analytical guy. You won’t see me writing about how a team needs more heart, more fire, or more grittiness. I don’t believe anyone can will their team to victory and I don’t think team chemistry is real important. But right now, it seems that this team is suffering from more psychological issues than any other team in the game. They just don’t have any confidence, and while I don’t think confidence alone wins games, I do think it’s a requisite for being able to properly execute the things that do win games. Bobby Cox can pep talk them all day and night, but Bobby Cox’ pep talks won’t help ease the stress of making up for John Smoltz’ shoulder, Tom Glavine’s elbow, or Jair Jurrjens’ ankle. Things are falling apart pretty quickly, and this team needs help right now, not on July 31.

It takes a big man to admit he’s wrong, which probably explains why most general managers either blame the players or manager (see: Bavasi) or simply proclaim they’re astounded when things don’t go the way they planned. That’s why most are too stubborn to make the necessary changes until the trade deadline, at zero hour. For Atlanta’s season, zero hour is nearing. Not only is the wild card easily in sight, this division is still very winnable. Now isn’t the time to sit idly by while things slip from our grasp.

They need some help, and by help, I don’t mean another call-up from Richmond, I don’t mean a waiver pick-up from Seattle. This team needs something important, a move to rally around that will lift a little of the load off their shoulders. This team needs a veteran starting pitcher and a veteran bat. There are two teams equipped with both, have no shot of competing this year, and should be looking to deal.

Seattle is 24-42, already a ridiculous 16 ½ games out of first. They’re already looking to 2009. However, there are some gems to be found. Raul Ibanez is a relatively cheap veteran hitter who could really boost the plate discipline and performance of the offense. If we’re willing to take on Jarrod Washburn’s contract for next year, I bet a pair of mid-level prospects could get the deal done. We could retain our top prospects and land some players who could really help the team and soon. Washburn has a scary 6.00 ERA, but that ERA is misleading as he’s mismatched in Seattle and could flourish in Atlanta. Here’s a guy who really isn’t pitching any fundamentally different than he did last year, but he’s suffering due to Seattle’s horrendous defense. Atlanta, conversely, has one of the best defenses in the majors. Washburn isn’t an ace, but he still has his command, can let the defense make plays, and could thrive with a change of scenery.

San Diego is 29-38, in 4^th place, and falling out of the race. While Greg Maddux is a tempting reunion, complete with all the warm fuzzies that come along with having the big three on the same roster, the Padres should be willing to unload Randy Wolf, and right now he’s a better pitcher. He’s cheaper and is a free agent at year’s end. Brian Giles is the sort of impact veteran bat that could really save this team. He’s as patient and smart a hitter as Chipper or Tex. He isn’t going to hit many home runs, but he will help the offense by constantly being on base. Make the other pitcher throw more pitches, get to the middle relievers. That’s how this team can get its confidence back. Start winning 1 run games rather than losing them.

Whether it’s Washburn, Wolf, Maddux, Giles, Ibanez, or someone else, this team needs an influx of not only talent but confidence. This teams needs something, and it isn’t a pep talk from Bobby Cox. My only hope is that we don’t have to wait until July 31 to get the help we need. You give a man medicine when he’s sick, not when he’s dead.

After an impressive 2007 that saw much improvement in plate discipline, it seemed that Jeff Francoeur was poised to take the logical next step forward in 2008.  As of June 9, he is batting .253/.303/.415.  Atlanta fans are clearly still waiting for that step forward.  So what happened?  There’s a fine line between a flawed player and an unlucky player, and we have to look a little deeper to see which area Francoeur falls into.

Francoeur’s batting average on balls in play this year is .278, which tells us that while he can’t chalk up his struggles completely to luck, he hasn’t exactly had balls falling in either.  That naturally corrects itself, so expect Francoeur’s BA to slightly raise in the coming weeks as a result.  However, Francoeur could do things himself to help his BA, notably hitting more line drives.  His line drive rate is his lowest of the last 3 years.  If Francoeur levels his swing a little bit, he could really help his batting average.  It will probably reach .265 on its own by only the sheer probability of the situation.  Francoeur could conceivably make small adjustments to push it to .280 or so, though.

While Frenchy hasn’t taken a step forward, it’s not exactly accurate to say he’s taken a step back.  He has maintained his much-improved walk rate from 2007.  He has cut his strikeout rate to the lowest it’s ever been.  He’s more selective than at any other point in his career, seeing a personal best 3.48 pitches per plate appearance this year.  Not only is he seeing more total pitches, he’s seeing more balls.  66% of the pitches he’s seen have been strikes, a career low.  He’s more patient than ever – he’s taking more strikes than ever in his career and he has the fewest swinging strikes of his career as well.  His contact rate of 77% is a career high.

However, this improvement in pitch selection might also be the accidental root of his problems.  Frenchy is pulling the ball less than ever, and he’s hitting a pretty hefty chunk of his fly balls to dead center field, where it’s less likely to go out.  If he can pull the trigger on some fastballs a little sooner, and pull them into the left field stands, all while maintaining his improved plate discipline, I think he could finally pick things up.

The power is still there as well.  He’s hitting a home run about as often as he did last year, and he’s hitting doubles with increased frequency.  His average home run distance, courtesy of HitTracker, has only dropped 3 feet, and he’s clearing the wall on those shots with ease.

All in all, while the lack of results is troubling, there aren’t any serious warning signs in Jeff Francoeur’s peripheral stats.  Yes, it’d be nice if he improved his home run rate and walk rate, but there’s no regression to worry about.  Sometimes the game just isn’t kind to players for a month or two, and it looks like that’s the main culprit with Jeff’s meager season totals so far.  Among things that he can control, he’s not any worse than recent seasons.  In fact, he’s better in some areas.  There are things he could still do, but as fans and, in my case, faux-analysts, we have to remember that he’s only 24 and still has plenty of time to grow as a hitter before we start thinking his ceiling has been reached.  The stats show that the wheels are turning in his head, and he’s progressing in little ways every year, even if the results aren’t all evident in black and white.  Count me as still very optimistic.

Today is one of the most important days if not the most important day for the future of the Braves. Today begins the Rule IV amateur draft. Today the Braves get the chance to pick its stars of tomorrow. The future is now.

The Braves’ first pick is the 40th overall pick in the draft. They acquired the pick when the Royals signed Ron Mahay. The Braves would have been picking 18th if they had not signed Tom Glavine. But with the Braves signing Glavine, the 18th pick now belongs to the Mets.

History has not been kind to the 40th pick. Of the 43 players taken with the 40th pick, only 14 have reached the majors. The biggest name would be Huston Street.

The Braves also own 3 more picks in the first one hundred picks: 64th, 70th, and 96th. They will pick 18th in every round except the first.

Expect the Braves to follow their usual draft plan. They will look for high school players with a high ceiling early on and may draft a few college arms or bats in the mid to later rounds. Like always the Braves will emphasize makeup.

My predictions for the Braves’ first four picks:
40: Zeke Spruill
64: Zach Cone
70: Xavier Avery
96: Michael Palazzone

Be sure to follow Braves-Report’s live coverage in the forum. 2008 Live Draft Coverage

It was announced today that John Smoltz will have season ending surgery on his shoulder on Tuesday. The only question left is whether he will be able to come back in pitch in 2009. If he is unable to then John it has been one hell of a career. If he is able to come back then the Braves will have one of the most valuable players in baseball on the roster.

Smoltz only threw 28 innings in 2008 but he was able to record his 3,000 strike-out. His record was 3 and 2.

The only of the big three to have played his whole career as a Brave, may have thrown his last pitch. Smoltz will be a Hall of Famer. He was the most versatile of the big three.

Smoltz pitched in 708 games over the course of his 20 year career. He won 210 games and lost 147. The thing that really sets him apart from other 200 game winners is his 154 career saves. He spent 3 seasons as the Braves closer. During that three year stretch no closer was more dominant than he was. His career ERA is 3.26. He is the all time post-season leader in wins with 15 and strike-outs with 194.

He is an 8 time All-Star. He won the NL Cy Young in 1996. He won the Rolaids Relief award in 2002. He was awarded the Silver Slugger in 1997.

No one is more completive than Smoltz is. He always gave everything he had when he took the mound. He has had 4 separate elbow surgeries. He missed the entire season in 2000 to have Tommy John. But this time it is his shoulder that has betrayed him.

Smoltz being the competitor that he is has said that he intends to pitch again. He will be seeing Dr, James Andrews, who will perform the surgery on Smoltz’s shoulder. If Smoltz doesn’t comeback, he will be eligible to be inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2014.

Thanks for the memories, John.

With the draft just days away, Braves-Report continues to look at some of the potential draftees the Braves may look to select. Since there has not been profiles added the past two days, today and tomorrow’s profile will each feature 2 players.

Zeke Spruill

Height: 6’4
Weight: 190
Birthdate: 9/11/1989
City: Marietta
State: GA
Position: RHP
B/T: R

Zeke has a nice and easy delivery that enables him to repeat his delivery time and time again. Has topped out at 94 MPH on the gun  but regularly sits in the 91-92 MPH range.  His fastball has a little sink on it which makes it a plus pitch. He also throws a curveball that acts more like a slurve. It is currently an average pitch. He like most high school pitchers needs to work on his changeup. Which usually sits around 81 MPH. He has command of all 3 of pitches. His slender frame allows for some projection. His velocity could increase once his frame fills out.  He has good makeup. And is very competitive.

Brett DeVall

Height: 6’4
Weight: 220
Birthdate: 1/8/1990
City: Niceville
State: FLA
Position: SP
B/T: R/L

Brett is one of the most advanced high school pitchers in this draft in terms of understanding of how to pitch. He does not light up the radar guns. He has touched 91 MPH but usually sits in the upper 80s. His curveball should develop into an average pitch but does not currently have the making of an out pitch. His change-up is currently his best pitch and has the making of a plus pitch. He is able to repeat his delivery quite easily which allows him to have command of all three of his pitches. He profiles as a middle of the rotation starter in the big leagues. But he could become a number two if he can increase the velocity of his fastball or develop his curve into a plus pitch.