Braves Report

The AJC is reporting that former Dodgers pitcher, Derek Lowe, has accepted a 4-year, $60 million offer from the Braves.

They’ve agreed to terms with veteran pitcher Derek Lowe on a four-year, $60 million contract, a person familiar with negotiations said this morning. The deal will be finalized after Lowe takes a physical Wednesday.

…

In 2008 with the Los Angeles Dodgers, he was 14-11 with a 3.24 ERA in 211 innings, including 6-1 with a 1.27 ERA in his last 10 starts.

This is a huge signing for the Braves. Lowe is now the ace of the staff and joins a rotation that will, surprisingly, be quite formidable.

Lowe/Vasquez/Jurrjens/Kawakami/Campillo (or Hanson/Glavine)

According to the AJC, the Braves have signed Japanese pitcher, Kenshin Kawakami.

This is good news for a franchise in desperate need of it. Kawakami could get penciled in as the Braves #2 starter or #4 starter, depending on signings and ST. He is flying to Atlanta for a physical.

Ah, rivalry games. There’s nothing better than beating your rival. And, in this case, there’s nothing better than when the Braves beat the Mets.

The game started out pretty decently for us. We started out early with a run on a sac fly by McCann, driving in Kotsay, who actually had a hit tonight. But the Mets struck back with a run in the 2nd, and it stayed that way till the bottom of the 3rd, when the Braves got back ahead for good. Francoeur and Diaz had run-scoring singles, driving in Chipper and Teixeira, respectively, to make the score 3-1. Tex tacked on another run-scoring single in the 4th inning, and the Braves were starting to cruise.

Then, controversy ensued. With one out and the bases loaded in the top of the 5th, Jose Reyes hit a sinking line drive to centerfield that Kotsay dove for and, in the third base umpire’s view, caught. Kotsay threw to McCann, who threw to second to create the double play, and the inning was over. And then all hell broke loose. Randolph came out and argued. The umpires met (during which time television replays showed that Kotsay had indeed trapped the ball) and ruled that it was a hit. Runners advanced one base, there was still one out, the bases were STILL loaded, and a run was in. Hudson was able to get Pagan to ground into a fielder’s choice, which drove in another run, and then Wright popped out to left and the inning was over. The Braves were clinging to a 4-3 lead.

The Braves tacked on an insurance run in the 6th when Kotsay knocked in Ruben Gotay with a single. Going to the bottom of the 7th, the Braves were holding onto a 5-3 lead. And they were facing an old friend, Jorge Sosa, who lost out on the 6th starter spot to Mike Pelfrey out of spring training. Jorge struck out Tex, and it looked as if he might breeze through the inning, but then Sosa got back to his 2006 ways by giving up a double to McCann. Francoeur singled to right, and there were men on first and third with one out. Diaz then whiffed, almost falling down in the process, and it looked like we’d be heading to the 8th with a slim 2-run lead. Prado then walked, setting the stage for pinch-hitter Kelly Johnson’s two-out heroics. With the count full and the fans on their feet, Johnson corked one to deep right field for a pinch-hit grand slam to bust the game wide open.

The Mets were able to close the gap to 9-5 in the next inning, but the Braves added two insurance runs in the bottom of the 8th and sent in Soriano to seal the deal in the 9th. He did just that, and got the Mets 1-2-3 for a much needed confidence booster and a big win over the big rival.

Hudson pitched 6 strong innings for his first win of the season, and Frenchy and Chipper both went 3 for 5 to help lead the offensive onslaught. Kotsay was good for once, getting two hits, and Tex’s 2 hits seem to indicate that he is starting to bust out of his chronic early season struggles.

The game tomorrow is at 1:35, and is not nationally televised.

Feel free to leave a comment or join the discussion in the Forum. Check back often to see all of our blogs.

Braves-Report and our new bloggers have decided to do a roundtable discussing the important things that the Braves have to do this season to be successful. Hopefully you enjoy the answers given, and if you want to discuss them, there will be a Discussion thread in the forum at http://braves-report.com/blog/forum.

Now, without further ado, here is the first part of the BR Roundtable!

- Name a player not on the roster or not expected to make the team that will make a difference.

Mark Smith: Charlie Morton. He seems to have righted the ship, and he’s impressed Cox with his dedication and stuff. Jurrjens or James will start the year at No. 5, but Morton works his way in when Hampton and/or Glavine go down.

chipperboy1: For me, everyone expects me to say Blaine Boyer. But since I expect him to make the roster, I won’t pick him. I’m going to go with Charlie Morton. Morton’s a guy that Cox loves and is a guy that conceivably could make the team out of spring training in a reliever role. If someone goes down, he could make the starting staff. He’s got great stuff, a great fastball, an awesome curveball, and great stuff. Only question I have with him is his mental toughness.

Brent Blackwell: Well, assuming we count Mike Gonzalez as on the roster right now, albeit on the disabled list, and apply the same logic to Chuck James, I can’t really say either of them. I suppose my answer is going to be Brent Lillibridge because I see us taking either Prado or Infante into the regular season as the primary middle infielder. In my opinion, I think it’s only a year or two before Lillibridge takes over at shortstop, because he’s defensively superior to Escobar, not to mention more dynamic offensively. Having two good young shortstops is a great problem to have, of course. I think at some point, due to some injury around the infield, the spot is going to open for him, and once he arrives, we’re not ever going to want to send him back down.

Bstarter: It’s hard for me to say because all the players I see having an impact are expected to be on the team at one time or another this season. My choice is Jo-Jo Reyes. He’s not expected to make the roster on opening day, so that’s what I’m assuming this asking. He finished strong last year, and really got a feel for the bigs and the many hardships that come with it. I’m almost certain that Hampton, or James, or both(!) are going to go down this year, and Jo-Jo will step in for one of them at some point in the season. I think Jo-Jo will be a strong arm at the back end of the rotation and make a big difference among the team.

LSU31: Royce Ring. Ring is a lefty, whose odds of making the opening day roster have been greatly enhanced thanks to Mike Gonzalez being out until June. He has a lifetime ERA of 3.11 in 42 major league innings. He held lefty hitters to a .158 average in Richmond, and his Atlanta numbers were solid: 0.00 ERA in 11 games. I think that great first impression helps to land him a job on opening day. I expect him to win the left handed specialist job.

- Who is the key player for the Braves?

Mark: Hard not to say Chipper or Tex here, but I’m going with Soriano. For the past few years, closer has been a major issue for the Braves, and we haven’t been in the playoffs. If he can nail down the door in the ninth, then we should be set. If he doesn’t, we’ll start out too slow and may not catch up. I like Moylan, but I like him more in swing situations where he can come in and bail us out with a strikeout or groundball.

CB:For me, it’s no question the answer is Mike Hampton. If Hampton’s healthy, we could have 4 15 game winners at minimum in the starting staff, and 3 former 20 game winners. That would be like the early Braves with our 4 awesome starting pitchers making us virtually unbeatable, and with the offense we have, 4 healthy, dominant pitchers could put us over the top.

Brent: Chipper Jones, and it’s because of replacement levels. If John Smoltz goes down, we’re already blessed with several young starters itching for opportunity, like Jo-Jo Reyes and Jair Jurrjens. If Mark Teixeira goes down, Scott Thorman is at least capable, and Javy Lopez could probably give it a try as well. But if Chipper goes down, there’s just no replacement. This team struggles when he’s not in the starting lineup:
With Chipper Without Chipper
’07 72-60 12-18
’06 53-53 26-30

I know Rafael Soriano is pretty important, but Atlanta made the playoffs in 2005 when Dan Kolb was the closer on opening day. If that tells us anything, it’s that a closer won’t keep you from making the playoffs. This team is built around offense, and Chipper keeps the offense humming. It’s vital he plays 135 games for Atlanta this year.

Bsta: Yunel Escobar. Plain and Simple. Why? Because he’s going to(needs to) provide a spark to this lineup, and as leadoff I think he can do just that. He’s got some serious shoes to fill in Edgar Renteria, but if last year is any indication, the shoes aren’t all that big. He’s got to do something for the Braves that they haven’t seen in some time, a good leadoff hitter. Yunel’s got the energy and ability to bat anywhere in the lineup. And if he goes down, who are we looking at? Prado? That’s a huge downgrade.

LSU31: Everyone will says that it is Hampton or Chipper. I am going to be different and say that it is Yunel Escobar. I think that Renteria was just as important as any Brave hitter was last year. They could not win in August without him. With him gone, Yunel must step up and produce. I realize that he won’t hit .330 again, but if he hits in the .280, I think we are in good shape.

- Who is the “ace”: Tim Hudson or John Smoltz?

Mark: Smoltz says Tim is the ace, but Smoltz is still the ace. John is still dominating in his early 40’s, and his power arm is still lethal. John did better last year in BAA, ERA, K’s, BB, and WHIP with Huddy winning in IP and HR allowed. Hudson might start Opening Day, but John is still the man.

CB: Smoltz, no question in my mind. Smoltz is the ace till he retires. Every time he goes out there, expect him to be dominant and strike people out. He’s our ace until he leaves the game.

Brent: The ace is most definitely Smoltz. Hudson is a phenomenal #2 starter, but John Smoltz is so reliable, this should be no real contest. His performance still warrants the ace title. Hudson had his best Atlanta season last year and still wasn’t as good as Smoltz.

Bsta: I believe John Smoltz even said it himself, Tim Hudson is the “ace” of the Braves. Nothing against Smoltz(he’s a man-crush of mine), but we can’t be looking at guys who have only a few years left in the tank at most, and ones in their 40s as our aces. Plus, Hudson puts up slightly better numbers. Last year he finished with a 16-10 record and a 3.33 ERA in 34 games. Smoltz on the other hand finished with a 3.11 ERA, but pitched two less games and had won 14 games. But it’s not just numbers, it’s vitality and health. There’s no beating around the bush that Smoltz doesn’t have a steel arm. And I know that Hudson has had his share of injuries, it isn’t to the degree of Smoltz.
LSU31: John Smoltz. As much as I like Hudson, its gotta be Smoltz. He is like a fine wine getting better with age. He has improved each year since he returned to the rotation. Hudson is a very good pitcher but is not near Smoltz in my opinion.

- What is Atlanta’s biggest weakness this year?

Mark: I think the offense is really good, so that leaves pitching. I feel good about Soriano and the bullpen, so I’ll take starting pitching in this one. Smoltz and Glavine are getting older which may increase the likelihood of them getting injured or declining. Hampton is too much of an injury risk to expect much of him. I think we are deep enough to handle one injury, but if any of the young guys have to pitch in the 3 slot, we’re in trouble.

CB: For me, the answer to that is tough. I really can’t find a weakness, especially if Kotsay’s healthy and Yunel lives up to his expectations, both of which I expect to happen. I guess if you had to pick a “weakness”, it could be the 5th starter, but even then, Chuck James or Jurrjens could step up and make that a strength. And again, Charlie Morton could come out of the woodwork and make that spot a good one.

Brent:I see two major weaknesses. First and foremost is bullpen experience. There’s virtually none. Rafael Soriano and Peter Moylan are really the only two guys in the pen you can really trust, and the rest is built largely on promise and talent. Any bullpen that considers Tyler Yates a key piece is not serious about making the playoffs, in my opinion, and that’s something that bothered me this offseason. I would very much have liked to see Joey Devine in Atlanta this year. He never truly got a fair shot in this town – we exposed him to the bigs entirely too early, he got rocked, and then we brought him up sporadically for the next few years. I think he’ll really shine in Oakland. Perhaps Blaine Boyer or Chris Resop can fill that void – I’ve long been a fan of both young pitchers – but it’s really uncertain.

The second major weakness is the one that bugs me most about Frank Wren so far – roster construction & wasted players. Bobby will take 12 pitchers. He always takes 12 to start the year, so that leaves 13 position players. McCann, Teixeira, KJ, Yunel, Chipper, Diaz, Kotsay, Francoeur. Those are 8 players we know will be on the team. That leaves 5 normal bench spots. One will be either Sammons or Lopez as the backup catcher. 4 spots left. We need a middle infielder. While I’m holding out hope for Lillibridge, you have to think Infante or Prado has the edge. 3 spots left. Now you have to think about players who require backups. Chipper Jones requires an on-hand backup. Does that mean we need two backup infielders? Possibly. Mark Kotsay absolutely requires a backup on-hand, which means someone like Josh Anderson will make the team. 2 spots left. Anderson’s a pretty one-dimensional player (I WANNA GO FAST!), so that leaves 2 spots for Brandon Jones, Brent Lillibridge, and Martin Prado to battle it out, right? Wrong! Why? Because this team has out-of-options Scott Thorman taking up a spot as a backup 1B/LF. This means Jones is probably out of luck, because he doesn’t play CF, and we don’t really need a third backup OF. So we probably wind up taking two backup middle/left side infielders.

Even if this isn’t the way it shakes out, guys like Josh Anderson and Scott Thorman don’t allow for very much roster flexibility, and they’re one dimensional players. Why we’re still holding onto quasi-prospects Thorman and Brayan Pena completely confuses me. They’re clearly not going to get their shot in Atlanta, so why not trade them while they still have value?

Bsta: 2nd base. Now, Kelly played pretty well in the beginning last year, aside from defense. The problem was, he limped to the All-Star Break, and was tired the rest of the year. Unless he can manage a 162-game season, and keep the ball from traveling under his legs, we’re deep trouble at second.

LSU31: It has got to be centerfield. Our scheduled centerfield for opening day is Mark Kotsay. He hit .214 last year or 8 points lower than Andruw. Granted he had to have back surgery which definitely hindered him last year. But how will he bounce back. I tried to find a hitter who was coming off of the same injury and surgery but was unable to. He is the biggest unknown and the biggest wildcard on this team. If he fails, do we put Josh Anderson in center or rush Jordan Schafer in and start his clock?

- Who is most likely to surprise us in a good way?

Mark: I think Hampton has the greatest shot. No Braves fan is counting on him making 20 starts. If he’s healthy, he’ll easily be our third best pitcher and give us a scary rotation come the playoffs, but he has to stay healthy.

CB: This is almost the same as the first question, but I’m going to have a different answer. I’m going to go with Matt Diaz. Diaz is a guy that we all know can rake, but this year I think he takes it to a new level without Willie Harris. Diaz is a guy I trust to play good defense and get hits all the time. I think we’ll still have one of the better OFs in the NL if Diaz comes through.
Pitching wise, I think Jurrjens surprises us. I think the Renteria trade landed us a good haul. Jurrjens is a guy I’ve liked for a while. His stuff is good, his control is good, and I think he’s going to be a good major league pitcher. He could get us 12-14 wins and surprise the experts in a good way.

Brent: I think there are a number of good surprises on the way: I think Soriano will be an elite closer in a very small amount of time. I think McCann will rebound. I think Kelly Johnson approaches 20 HR and maintains his OBP from ’07. I think Jair Jurrjens/Chuck James/Jo-Jo Reyes form a solid combo in the #5 spot (I guess that means I’m starting to eye the Mike Hampton Feelin’ Good Bandwagon this spring). The player that I think will really surprise Braves fans, though, is Jeffrey Francoeur. I really think he’s ready for a major breakout. I will probably be exploring Francoeur’s numbers more closely in an article before the season begins, but I don’t think .290/.350/.500 with 30+ HR is out of the question this year. I wouldn’t even be surprised if Frenchy gets the bulk of the MVP attention in Atlanta this year, what with Chipper & Tex always on base in front of him. Also, if he can get healthy, I think Chuck James might be on the verge of a breakout, though my gut says 2009′s a better bet for that.

Bsta: Mark Kotsay. Everyone has been so hard on him, and been riding his case ever since he set foot out of the Oakland locker room. You just can’t help but feel that he’s going to do great here. I mean, c’mon, can he be any worse than Mr. Mendoza?

LSU31: – Who is most likely to surprise us in a good way?
Mark Kotsay. Not counting last year, he is a .285 career hitter. I think he will be able to bounce back from the back surgery. He isn’t going to add any pop in the line-up, he will probably hit 10 home runs. Get about 75 RBIs. But the one thing that he will bring that will be key is his defense. He is a career .988 fielder while Andruw was a .992 fielder. He was on web gems just as much as Andruw was in 2005 and 2006.

- Who is most likely to disappoint us?

Mark: I’ll give this to Glavine. I think most people are looking for him to solve our pitching woes from last year, but I can’t help but see a 5 ERA or worse for him this year. If it’s that high, he’s just not being effective.

CB: Tough one, as I would hate to jinx anyone, but if I had to guess, I might have to say Rafael Soriano. These arm problems in spring training are not a good sign, no matter what Wren and Cox say. If he’s healthy, great, we have a really good bullpen. If he’s not healthy, darn, we could just put Moylan in the closer’s role until Gonzalez (hopefully) comes back healthy. Either way, we will have a good bullpen on our team. It’s just better if Soriano’s healthy.

Brent: Disappointment is often just a byproduct of misinformed expectations, and that might be the case this year with Tom Glavine. I think many fans are going to expect Glavine circa 1998 or even 2002 back with the ballclub, but he’s not the same pitcher anymore. It won’t surprise me if his ERA hovers in the high 4′s most of the year, but Atlanta fans need to remember one thing – we don’t need him to be an ace, we don’t expect him to be an ace, and we’re not paying him to be an ace. For me personally, I think Yunel Escobar, who seems bound to come back to earth after last year’s phenomenal numbers, could be something of a disappointment to some Atlanta fans.

Bstarter: Kelly Johnson. They say him and Hubbard have been working hard during the offseason building his defensive skill and his ability to last more than 10 games in a season, but I don’t see it happening. I think he’ll get off to a good start, but will quickly sputter, and the message boards will light up demanding his head.

LSU31: Brandon Jones. His strike-out rate was far too high for my liking. In the minors last year he struck out once every 4.45 at bats. When he was called up, he struck out 8 times in only 19 ABs. I think he can be a very useful player down the road but I can not see it happening this year with him splitting time with Matt Diaz. Diaz will start vs. the lefties. Jones most likely vs. the right-handers. Jones hit only .260 vs. right-handers when he was with Richmond.

Don’t forget to check back on Friday for the completion of the round table!