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	<title>Braves Report &#187; Scott Thorman</title>
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		<title>Talking Trade: Scott Thorman</title>
		<link>http://www.braves-report.com/blog/2008/03/10/talking-trade-scott-thorman/</link>
		<comments>http://www.braves-report.com/blog/2008/03/10/talking-trade-scott-thorman/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 10 Mar 2008 18:15:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>BBlackwell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Thorman]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Word has leaked out that Atlanta is seeking to trade Scott Thorman for a relief pitcher. Before we can gauge what teams might be interested in Scott Thorman, we need to figure out exactly what he brings to the table. What he brings to the table, Atlanta fans, is more than you’d think. While I [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Word has leaked out that Atlanta is seeking to trade Scott Thorman for a relief pitcher.   Before we can gauge what teams might be interested in Scott Thorman, we need to figure out exactly what he brings to the table.   What he brings to the table, Atlanta fans, is more than you’d think.   While I obviously don’t think he’ll ever be an everyday player, I do think there’s some future for him in a platoon role, either as a DH or 1B.   Here’s why.  Scott Thorman put up some nice minor league numbers.   In 2005 he hit .305 at Mississippi and .276 at Richmond.   In 2006 at Richmond, he hit .298/.349/.508, which is plenty impressive.   However, he has struggled in the majors.   I understand minor league statistics do not always accurately project major league ability, but some do.   It’s not batting average I’m looking at here, but batting average on balls in play.   After all, the fields are the same size, and if there’s any area in which minor league players are close to equaling major league players, it’s defensively.   Looking at Thorman’s minor league BABIP numbers, we see that they were consistently better than the average of .290.   In the majors, though, the hits just aren’t falling in – Thorman has posted BABIPs in the .240’s for both major league seasons.   This indicates that Thorman has had a run of poor luck in Atlanta, at least with regard to his batting average.</p>
<p>Still, he does have obvious problems.   He doesn’t take many pitches, he strikes out entirely too often, and his 71% contact rate (compared to the league norm of 80%) is miserable.   However, there’s reason to believe his batting average will rise in the near future, and all he really needs to boost his confidence are a few more singles here and there.   It’s not out of the realm of possibility that, in a specific role, he could even bat between .275 and .300.   Seriously, that’s how random BABIP can be, and that’s how much of an effect it can take on your batting average.   Considering this, there’s reason to believe Thorman could be attractive to some team that wants to put him in the proper role.   What role is that?   Well, let’s look at his slugging percentage. .452 vs. righties, and .276 against lefties.   There’s a clear disparity, but slugging percentage doesn’t tell the whole story of power potential – Ichiro Suzuki slugged .431 last year, and we know he doesn’t actually include much &#8220;slugging&#8221; in his game.   Let’s instead look at Isolated Power, which is simply Slugging Average minus Batting Average, which removes the effect of singles.   Against righties, Thorman’s ISO is .217, which indicates he generates plenty of power.  Against lefties, it’s .095, which isn’t impressive for a first baseman.   Clearly, Thorman belongs in a 1B or DH platoon where he faces right handed pitching and right handed pitching only.   So, who should be interested, why would they be, and what could we get?</p>
<p><strong>New York Yankees</strong><br />
<em><strong> WHY?</strong></em>  Shelley Duncan’s performance begs so badly for a platoon partner it isn’t even funny.   Duncan crushed southpaws last year, but the Yankees need better performance against right-handers, and they have no one to deliver that.   Duncan might be nearly as good as Thorman against righties, but it’s a big chance to take if you’re trying to win the division.<br />
<em><strong> IN RETURN?</strong></em> Possibly Jose Veras, a long reliever with decent strikeout ability and some control problems, or Jeff Karstens, a former starter who is bound for the bullpen at some point and isn’t really ready, though he still has talent.</p>
<p><strong>Seattle Mariners</strong><br />
<em><strong> WHY?</strong></em> Because against right-handers, Thorman, even with last year’s stats, is an upgrade over Richie Sexson at 1B.   Also, because this team needs some punch at DH when Jose Vidro inevitably declines.<br />
<em><strong> IN RETURN?</strong></em>  Sean White, a groundball machine who keeps the ball in the park, but otherwise has some control issues.  Jon Huber and Cesar Jiminez are possibilities as well.</p>
<p><strong>St. Louis Cardinals</strong><br />
<em><strong> WHY?</strong></em> The Cardinals have no better backup for Albert Pujols (I was unaware that Josh Phelps was still even playing baseball).   Also, they have virtually no left handed pop off the bench.   As a pinch hitter, he’d be a nice complement to Ryan Ludwick.<br />
<em><strong> IN RETURN?</strong></em> Josh Kinney, a groundball pitcher who will issue too many free passes; Brad Thompson, a groundball pitcher who doesn’t strike anyone out; Kelvin Jiminez, another somewhat capable reliever who probably doesn’t have a place in STL’s pen this year.</p>
<p><strong>Houston Astros</strong><br />
<em><strong> WHY?</strong></em> The Astros have Geoff Blum as their primary bench option against right-handers, and Geoff Blum has no power.<br />
<em><strong> IN RETURN?</strong></em>  Possibly Chris Sampson, who does everything well except missing bats.</p>
<p><strong>San Francisco Giants</strong><br />
<em><strong> WHY?</strong></em>  Dan Ortmeier.<br />
<em><strong> IN RETURN?</strong></em> Possibly Brad Hennessey, who could be moved to instill confidence in  Brian Wilson; Scott Atchison, who does several things well but nothing wonderfully.</p>
<p>Of course, there’s always the chance Atlanta trades Thorman for some marginal prospect in the minors, but that could be literally anyone from these organizations.   My selections were mostly based on what realistic return Atlanta could get that would benefit the team in 2008.</p>
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